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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 48
2020-11-12 09:54:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 120854 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Satellite images indicate that Eta has lost most of its central deep convection over the past several hours, with the radar center becoming poorly defined and decreasing winds aloft noted. The last Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission found winds to support about 50 kt, and with the continued loss of organization, the current wind speed is lowered to 45 kt. The tropical cyclone should be making landfall in the Cedar Key area soon. Eta is forecast to weaken over its short passage over the Florida peninsula later today, and over the western Atlantic tonight due to strong shear. There has been a change in some of the guidance showing the tropical cyclone re-gaining strength as a non-tropical low after 24 hours due to a more favorable positioning with the next mid-latitude trough near the Great Lakes on Friday. The strongest solutions are seen in the UKMET and ECMWF models, which indicate even storm-force winds are possible in a few days. I'd rather wait one more cycle to see if this trend continues but, as a compromise, the new forecast shows some re-strengthening as an extratropical cyclone and reverses any former weakening trend. The storm is moving a little faster to the northeast this morning. Eta should accelerate even more in that direction later today as it becomes steered by the faster middle-latitude flow. The new forecast shows a more rapid forward speed than the previous advisory, which is related to the ECMWF/UKMET model solutions of Eta showing some extratropical intensification and staying coherent, rather than shearing out as a weak low like the GFS. Eta should merge with a large non-tropical low in 2 to 3 days. Key Messages: 1. There remains a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from the Middle of Longboat Key to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the warning area along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast during the next few hours, and in the warning area on the east coast later today. 3. Localized bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of the Florida Peninsula today, resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of west Florida lasting into the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 29.1N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 30.6N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 32.6N 78.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 35.2N 73.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0600Z 38.0N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 48
2020-11-12 09:54:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 120854 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 ...ETA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA... ...STILL PRODUCING DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 83.0W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of the middle of Longboat Key has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning between Bonita Beach and Middle of Longboat Key, Florida, including Charlotte Harbor, has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Middle of Longboat Key to Suwannee River Florida, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Middle of Longboat Key to Suwannee River Florida * Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews Sound Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 83.0 West. Eta is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). Eta should make landfall soon, move across northeastern Florida today and emerge into the western Atlantic this afternoon. The cyclone is expected to accelerate over the western Atlantic and move parallel to, but offshore of the Carolinas before heading well east of the Mid-Atlantic coast by late Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is expected to weaken after landfall but could re-intensify as a non-tropical cyclone on Thursday and Friday before becoming absorbed by a larger non-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service station near Cedar Key recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of 50 mph (81 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches) based on surface observations from Cedar Key. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...1-3 ft Bonita Beach to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain across portions of the Florida Peninsula through today, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 to 25 inches in South Florida. Localized flash and urban flooding will be possible across the Florida Peninsula today, especially across previously inundated areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of west Florida lasting into the weekend. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast through this morning, and in the warning area along the east coast starting in the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the Florida Gulf Coast today and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 48
2020-11-12 09:54:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 120854 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 34 5(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) KINGS BAY GA 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 34 45 8(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) MAYPORT NS FL 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 43 X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) JACKSONVILLE 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 91 X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) GAINESVILLE FL 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ORLANDO FL 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 48
2020-11-12 09:53:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 120853 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WARNING BETWEEN BONITA BEACH AND MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY FLORIDA INCLUDING CHARLOTTE HARBOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY FLORIDA LINE NORTHWARD TO ST. ANDREWS SOUND GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 83.0W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 83.0W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 83.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.6N 81.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.6N 78.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.2N 73.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 38.0N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 83.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Theta Graphics
2020-11-12 09:50:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 08:50:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 09:31:37 GMT
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