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Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 19A
2020-10-29 12:48:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 291148 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 ...ZETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.3N 83.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 39 MPH...63 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from Navarre to the Walton/Bay County Line, Florida has been canceled. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 83.5 West. Zeta is racing toward the northeast near 39 mph (63 km/h). An even faster northeastward motion is expected later today, followed by a rapid east-northeastward motion tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move across portions of the southeastern U.S. this morning, across the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon, and emerge over the western Atlantic by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Zeta is expected to become a non-tropical gale-force low later today. The low should become absorbed by a frontal system over the western Atlantic by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 82 mph (131 km/h) was recently reported at Cashiers, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 990 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the Central Gulf coast will gradually subside throughout the day. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information. WIND: Damaging winds, especially in gusts, are spreading across northern Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North Carolina. These winds will shift into other portions of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia later today. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains. RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and lower to middle Ohio Valley through Thursday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in possible flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible later today over the Carolinas and southern Virginia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-10-29 09:40:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 290840 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0900 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INFORMATION ON ONGOING COASTAL FLOODING CAN BE FOUND IN COASTAL FLOOD PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO WEST OF NAVARRE...FLORIDA...HAS BEEN CANCELED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NAVARRE TO WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 85.5W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 34 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 150SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 85.5W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 87.5W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 37.7N 79.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 40.8N 66.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 200SE 200SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 43.4N 54.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 240SE 270SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 85.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-10-29 09:40:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 290840 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Surface observations and Doppler radar data indicate that Zeta weakened to a tropical storm around 0600 UTC when it was located over central Alabama. During the past few hours, the cyclone's structure has degraded further with the center no longer easily apparent in radar images and convection appearing more ragged and asymmetric. The initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt for this advisory, and that could be a little generous. The minimum pressure is estimated to be 988 mb based on surface observations. The storm continues to accelerate, and the latest initial motion is northeastward at 34 kt. Zeta is expected to race northeastward today in the fast steering flow between a potent mid- to upper-level low to its west and a high pressure ridge to its southeast. This pattern should take the cyclone across the southeast and Mid-Atlantic states throughout the day, before emerging over the western Atlantic this evening. An even faster east-northeastward motion is predicted tonight and on Friday until the cyclone dissipates by Friday night. The tropical storm is forecast to weaken a little more during the next several hours as it remains over land, and Zeta will likely become extratropical by the time it reaches the mid-Atlantic states this afternoon. However, after that time, the models show the cyclone leveling off in strength or perhaps even re-intensifying over the western Atlantic before it becomes absorbed into a frontal zone in 36 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the GFS and ECMWF models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and power outages, will continue to spread well inland across portions of northeastern Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia today due to Zeta's fast forward speed. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains. 2. Through today, heavy rainfall is expected near and in advance of Zeta from portions of the central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and lower to middle Ohio Valley. This rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 34.0N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/1800Z 37.7N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/0600Z 40.8N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1800Z 43.4N 54.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-10-29 09:40:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 290840 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0900 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WASHINGTON DC 34 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 37(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 59(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 2 41(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 61(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) WALLOPS CDA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 29 4(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) RICHMOND VA 34 20 39(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) DANVILLE VA 34 78 X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) DANVILLE VA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 5 19(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) NORFOLK VA 34 4 17(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) OCEANA NAS VA 34 3 13(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ELIZABETH CTY 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GREENSBORO NC 34 82 X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) RALEIGH NC 34 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) ROCKY MT NC 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHARLOTTE NC 34 83 X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) NEW RIVER NC 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ATLANTA GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AUGUSTA GA 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) COLUMBUS GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MONTGOMERY AL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 19
2020-10-29 09:39:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 290839 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 ...ZETA PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 85.5W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF ATLANTA GEORGIA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 39 MPH...63 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued. Information on ongoing coastal flooding can be found in coastal flood products issued by local National Weather Service offices. The Tropical Storm Warning from the Mississippi-Alabama border to west of Navarre, Florida, has been canceled. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Navarre to Walton/Bay County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 85.5 West. Zeta is racing toward the northeast near 39 mph (63 km/h). An even faster northeastward motion is expected later today, followed by a rapid east-northeastward motion tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move across portions of the southeastern U.S. this morning, across the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon, and emerge over the western Atlantic by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Zeta is expected to become a non-tropical gale-force low later today. The low should become absorbed by a frontal system over the western Atlantic by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the Central Gulf coast will gradually subside throughout the day. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the warning area near the northern Gulf Coast for a few more hours. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, are spreading well inland across portions of central and northern Alabama, and northern Georgia, and these winds will shift into eastern Tennessee, the Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia later today. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains. RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and lower to middle Ohio Valley through Thursday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in possible flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes could occur this morning from parts of the Florida Panhandle across southeastern Alabama and Georgia. A tornado or two is possible later today over the Carolinas and southern Virginia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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