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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-11-02 03:49:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 020249 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 80.0W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 80.0W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 79.5W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.8N 81.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.5N 82.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.1N 83.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.0N 84.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.0N 85.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.2N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 14.9N 88.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 80.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-11-02 03:49:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 020249 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 6(20) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 6(21) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GUANAJA 34 2 4( 6) 6(12) 5(17) 9(26) 2(28) 5(33) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 2 54(56) 28(84) 6(90) 2(92) 1(93) X(93) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X 23(23) 40(63) 4(67) 2(69) 1(70) X(70) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X 6( 6) 33(39) 5(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) BLUEFIELDS 34 1 2( 3) 13(16) 7(23) 4(27) 1(28) 1(29) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN ANDRES 34 3 11(14) 9(23) 5(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) SAN ANDRES 50 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LIMON 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) MONTEGO BAY 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-02 00:57:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Nov 2020 23:57:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Nov 2020 21:25:15 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-02 00:57:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT... ...WILL BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 7:00 PM EST Sun Nov 1 the center of Eta was located near 14.9, -79.5 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 5A
2020-11-02 00:57:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 012357 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 700 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 ...ETA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT... ...WILL BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 79.5W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 79.5 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected tonight. A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua on Monday, and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua Monday night or early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move inland over northern Nicaragua through early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane later tonight, with additional strengthening likely until the hurricane makes landfall Monday night or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The latest minimum central is 989 mb (29.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area beginning Monday night, with tropical storm conditions possible in this area by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by Monday afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday afternoon: Central and northern Nicaragua into much of Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm). Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 20 inches (510 mm). Jamaica: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas. Southern Haiti and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm) This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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