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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 2A
2020-11-01 06:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 010541 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 ...ETA MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 74.9W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. * The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these countries later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 74.9 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight or Monday morning. A slower motion toward the west-southwest and then southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to be near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras by Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by Monday evening. RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Eta is expected to cause 5 to 10 inches of rain, with local 15-inch amounts, across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and possibly the southern coast of Hispaniola. Across portions of Central America, 10 to 15 inches of rain, with local amounts to 25 inches are expected. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding and river flooding, and could lead to landslides in areas of higher terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-01 03:50:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Nov 2020 02:50:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Nov 2020 03:25:12 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-11-01 03:47:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 010247 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with the cyclone continues to become better organized, with a convective band wrapping about halfway around the center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 35 kt, and the CIMSS satellite consensus is near 40 kt. Based on these data, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Eta, the twenty-eighth named storm of the 2020 season. This ties the record for storms set in the 2005 season and is the first time the name Eta has been used in the Atlantic basin. The initial motion is 275/13. A low- to mid-level ridge axis that extends from the subtropical Atlantic southwestward to Cuba and the Bahamas is currently the main steering influence, and the model guidance is in good agreement that this feature should cause the storm to move westward for the next 24-36 h. Between 36-72 h, a building low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta to turn west-southwestward as it approaches the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. Beyond that time, there remains significant spread in the models, with the GFS showing a slow motion toward the northwest near the coast of Honduras while the ECMWF/UKMET show a continued west-southwestward motion into the Pacific. Given the spread, the NHC official track forecast shows a slow motion on days 3 through 5, and brings the cyclone's center slowly across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. The new forecast track is close to the multi-model consensus, and the 72-120 h part remains low confidence. Eta is over warm water and is in environment of light vertical wind shear. These conditions are expected to continue until the system nears the coast of Central America on 60-72 h. Thus, steady to possibly rapid strengthening is expected, with the storm forecast to reach hurricane strength between 36-48 h. The intensity guidance has trended stronger since the last advisory, and this part of the new intensity forecast is now a little below the intensity consensus. After 72 h, the intensity forecast is tied to whether or not the cyclone's center moves inland over Central America, and the current forecast is based on the forecast track that takes the center well inland. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early next week as it approaches the coast of Central America late Monday and Monday night, and there is a risk of storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions of Nicaragua and Honduras where Hurricane Watches have been issued. Hurricane warnings could be needed for portions of those areas on Sunday. 2. Through Thursday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta may lead to flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Central America, which could lead to landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flooding is also possible near the southern coast of Hispaniola, depending upon the track of the storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 15.0N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 15.1N 76.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 15.3N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 15.2N 80.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 14.7N 82.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 14.2N 82.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 13.7N 83.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 96H 05/0000Z 14.0N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/0000Z 14.5N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-11-01 03:47:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 010247 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) 8(25) 5(30) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 29(51) 7(58) 2(60) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 4(24) 1(25) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15(17) 11(28) 1(29) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN ANDRES 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 16(29) 8(37) 1(38) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 1(13) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) LIMON 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) COLON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) MONTEGO BAY 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) KINGSTON 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-01 03:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ETA... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 the center of Eta was located near 15.0, -74.2 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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