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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 2
2020-11-01 03:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 010247 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ETA... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 74.2W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Watch for the northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. The Government of Nicaragua has issued a Hurricane Watch for the northeastern coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. * The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these countries later tonight or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 74.2 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday night or Monday morning. A slower motion toward the west-southwest and then southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to be near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras by Monday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Eta is expected to cause 5 to 10 inches of rain, with local 15-inch amounts, across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and possibly the southern coast of Hispaniola. Across portions of Central America, 10 to 15 inches of rain, with local amounts to 25 inches are expected. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding and river flooding, and could lead to landslides in areas of higher terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-11-01 03:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 010247 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO PUERTO CABEZAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO PUERTO CABEZAS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTRIES LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 74.2W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 74.2W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 73.5W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.1N 76.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.3N 78.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.2N 80.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.7N 82.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.2N 82.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.7N 83.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 50SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 14.0N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 14.5N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 74.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Zeta Graphics
2020-10-29 15:53:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Oct 2020 14:53:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Oct 2020 14:53:42 GMT
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-10-29 15:52:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 291452 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Zeta continues to move rapidly over land, and its maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 45 kt over the southeastern quadrant, with thew highest winds occuring over elevated locations. The wind gust factor continues to be higher than usual due to the interaction with land. Zeta continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving near 055/42 kt. The cyclone should accelerate some more ahead of a strong 500-mb trough moving into the eastern United States over the next day or so. The official track forecast is in reasonable agreement with the global model predictions. The pressure pattern of Zeta is becoming distorted, and starting to take on an extratropical appearance as the cyclone begins to interact with a nearby frontal system. By this afternoon, the global models indicate that the system will become a frontal low and thus extratropical. Some short-term baroclinic strengthening is possible over the western Atlantic, but the guidance suggests that the system will become absorbed into the frontal zone in 36 hours or so. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and power outages, will continue to spread eastward across portions of the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia through this afternoon due to Zeta's fast forward speed. 2. Through today, heavy rainfall is expected near and in advance of Zeta from portions of the Ohio Valley, into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. This rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 36.5N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/0000Z 39.4N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/1200Z 42.0N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-10-29 15:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 375 FONT13 KNHC 291452 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 1500 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 1 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MONTAUK POINT 34 4 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLIP NY 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) TRENTON NJ 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PHILADELPHIA 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 40 X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) BALTIMORE MD 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) DOVER DE 34 63 X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) DOVER DE 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 48 X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) WASHINGTON DC 34 33 X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) OCEAN CITY MD 34 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) OCEAN CITY MD 50 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) OCEAN CITY MD 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 78 X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) PAX RIVER NAS 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WALLOPS CDA 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) WALLOPS CDA 50 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 53 X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) RICHMOND VA 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) RICHMOND VA 50 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) DANVILLE VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DANVILLE VA 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NORFOLK NAS 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) OCEANA NAS VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ELIZABETH CTY 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GREENSBORO NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GREENSBORO NC 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ROCKY MT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FAYETTEVILLE 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) CHARLOTTE NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) COLUMBIA SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AUGUSTA GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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