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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-11-01 15:56:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 395 FONT14 KNHC 011456 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 9(18) 5(23) 4(27) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 25(44) 16(60) 3(63) 1(64) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 13(27) 2(29) X(29) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 13(19) 4(23) 1(24) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAN ANDRES 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 11(25) 8(33) 2(35) 1(36) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LIMON 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MONTEGO BAY 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGSTON 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-01 15:55:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS... ...SLOW-MOVING ETA IS LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 10:00 AM EST Sun Nov 1 the center of Eta was located near 14.8, -77.2 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 4
2020-11-01 15:55:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 011455 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 ...WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS... ...SLOW-MOVING ETA IS LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 77.2W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Nicaragua has issued a Hurricane Warning from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi. The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 77.2 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through tonight. A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to be near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras by Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane by late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible in this area by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by late Monday, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Thursday evening: Central and northern Nicaragua into much of Honduras: 15 to 25 inches, isolated amounts of 35 inches. Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches, isolated amounts of 25 inches. Jamaica: 5 to 10 inches, isolated amounts of 15 inches over southern areas. Southern Haiti and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches, isolated amounts of 10 inches. This rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Brown/Berg
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-11-01 15:55:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 011455 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 77.2W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 77.2W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 76.6W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.9N 78.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 20SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.9N 80.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.5N 81.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.2N 82.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 80SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.9N 83.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.8N 84.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 14.1N 86.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 14.6N 88.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 77.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-01 12:46:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Nov 2020 11:46:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Nov 2020 09:25:17 GMT
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