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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 6A
2020-10-04 01:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 032334 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 700 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 87.9W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North and west of Punta Allen to Dzilam Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located inland near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 87.9 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northwest with decreasing forward speed is expected tonight and Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will continue to move over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula through tonight, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and pass near or north of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast tonight and Sunday, followed by some re-intensification by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across northeastern Quintana Roo and northern Yucatan. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is possible in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The storm will also result in an area of heavy rains to the south that will affect the Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua with accumulation of 4 to 6 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula for the next few hours, and these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning area through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Gamma Graphics
2020-10-04 01:34:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 23:34:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 21:25:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gamma Graphics
2020-10-03 22:40:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 20:40:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 20:40:09 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-10-03 22:38:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 032037 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Surface observations from the Yucatan Peninsula along with high-resolution visible satellite imagery indicated that the center of Gamma made landfall in the vicinity of Tulum, Mexico, shortly before 1700 UTC. Earlier aircraft observations and pressure measurements from Tulum showed that the system was very near hurricane strength when it made landfall. A ragged eye appeared in the visible images shortly after the center crossed the coast, but that feature has since become obscured. Since Gamma has likely been slowly weakening while moving over land, the current intensity has been set to 55 kt. Continued gradual weakening is likely into Sunday while the center either moves over land or interacts with nearby land. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin by Monday, but the numerical guidance is not very enthusiastic about intensification over the Gulf, probably due to the combination of drier air and the interaction with another low pressure system to the east. The official intensity forecast is not much different from the model consensus. Gamma has been moving northwestward, but it is expected to turn north-northwestward while moving near and into a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the next day or so. The global models predict that a trough to the north of the tropical cyclone will lift northeastward and bypass Gamma. In a couple of days, a ridge is forecast to build back, albeit weakly, across the Gulf of Mexico. This is expected to cause the system to turn westward to southwestward over the latter part of the forecast period. The more reliable global models show the system meandering over the southern Bay of Campeche in 4 to 5 days, and so does the official forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America. 2. Even though Gamma has moved inland, tropical storm conditions will continue along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through this evening and are expected to spread along the north coast within the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight and on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 20.7N 87.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/0600Z 21.3N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1800Z 22.0N 88.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 05/0600Z 22.1N 88.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 22.0N 89.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 21.6N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 21.0N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 20.0N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 20.0N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Gamma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-10-03 22:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 032037 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 1(14) 2(16) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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