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Summary for Tropical Storm Gamma (AT5/AL252020)
2020-10-03 01:57:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GAMMA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 7:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 the center of Gamma was located near 18.8, -85.8 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 2A
2020-10-03 01:57:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 022357 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GAMMA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 85.8W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 85.8 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should be near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area by Saturday morning, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Saturday and Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Marie Graphics
2020-09-30 16:45:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2020 14:45:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2020 14:45:09 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-30 16:43:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 301443 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Marie's satellite presentation has been gradually improving. The center is embedded beneath a central dense overcast feature, and the convective band within the western semicircle has become a little more pronounced and continuous. In addition, a mid-level eye has begun to form, as observed in a 1200 UTC SSMIS microwave pass. Dvorak intensity estimates range from 45-55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the most recent SATCON estimate was 53 kt (at around 0900 UTC). Based on these numbers and the continued improvement of Marie's structure, the initial intensity is set at 55 kt. The stage appears set for Marie to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days. Water vapor imagery indicates that the easterly shear over the cyclone has continued to decrease and should be generally low for the next 3 days, and upper-level divergence will also be in place during that period to help ventilate the storm. The thermodynamics are also favorable for fast strengthening, highlighted by sea surface temperatures of 28-29 degrees Celsius and plenty of moisture in the surrounding environment. Due to these conditions, the NHC forecast explicitly shows rapid intensification during the next couple of days, with a peak intensity likely occuring sometime between 48 and 60 hours. The peak intensity shown in the official forecast has been nudged upward slightly from the previous prediction, following the trends in the intensity guidance, however it's noteworthy that even this forecast is 5-10 kt lower than the solutions provided by the HCCA consensus aid and the COAMPS-TC model. In about 3 days, cooler waters and then increasing shear (especially on days 4 and 5) should induce a gradual weakening trend. Marie is moving westward (275/14 kt) to the south of a strong mid-tropospheric high centered near the U.S./Mexico border. This ridge is expected to maintain Marie on a westward or west-northwestward trajectory for the next 2-3 days. Even though a mid- to upper-level low near 130W longitude has caused a break in the ridge, the models have trended toward this feature weakening during the next few days. This has in turn caused many of the models to trend westward with Marie's track after day 3, as was noted in the previous advisory, but there is also greater spread than there was yesterday. The NHC track forecast remains closest to the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids, near the middle of the guidance envelope, which is bracketed on the right side by the GFS (and its ensemble mean) and the left side by the ECMWF (and its ensemble mean) by the end of the forecast period. The 12-ft sea radii remain larger than would be expected for a tropical storm of Marie's size due to a large fetch of southerly swell originating from the Southern Hemisphere. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 14.2N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 14.5N 118.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 15.1N 121.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 15.9N 123.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 16.9N 125.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 18.0N 127.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 19.8N 130.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 21.1N 133.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-09-30 16:43:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 301443 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 49 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 15N 115W 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 1 50(51) 44(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 120W 50 X 7( 7) 66(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) 15N 120W 64 X 2( 2) 47(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 49(53) 17(70) 1(71) X(71) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 17(35) X(35) X(35) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 3(21) X(21) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 44(59) 6(65) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 4(32) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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