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Tropical Storm Gamma Update Statement
2020-10-03 18:59:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTNT65 KNHC 031658 TCUAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR TULUM, MEXICO... Surface observations and satellite images indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Gamma made landfall in the northeast Yucatan Peninsula near Tulum, Mexico, around 1145 AM CDT. The storm was very close to hurricane strength at landfall, with maximum sustained winds near 70 MPH (110 MPH) with higher gusts. A weather station at Xel-Ha Park, along the Yucatan coast just north of Tulum, reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) within the past hour. SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 87.5W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Gamma Graphics
2020-10-03 17:00:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 15:00:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 15:00:03 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-10-03 16:57:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 031457 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Observations from both the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Gamma has continued to strengthen this morning. The cloud pattern has continued to become better organized, with an eye trying to become evident on high-resolution satellite images from the GOES-16 mesoscale sectors. Flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft support an intensity of 60 kt, and the storm could strengthen a little more as long as the center remains over water. Since Gamma will be near or at hurricane intensity when it makes landfall later today, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Gamma should weaken some while it moves over land tonight. Some re-intensification is likely after the center moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico. However, the numerical guidance does not show much strengthening during the next few days, possibly due to the influence of drier air and/or the interaction with another area of low pressure to the east of Gamma. The official intensity forecast is near or above the model consensus. Gamma continues northwestward at near 8 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn north-northwestward and move through a break in the subtropical ridge through 36 hours or so. Thereafter, a trough to the north moves eastward, bypassing Gamma, and later in the forecast period a ridge builds weakly over the Gulf of Mexico. This should cause the cyclone to turn toward the west and southwest. The official track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus, TVCN. Although Gamma has strengthened, its biggest threat continues to be torrential rains, flooding, and mudslides especially near and over mountainous terrain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America. 2. Gamma is very near hurricane strength and will be near or at hurricane intensity when the center moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula later today. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for portions of the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical storm conditions are already occurring. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the Tropical Storm Warning area later today and on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 20.0N 87.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 20.8N 87.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1200Z 21.8N 88.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 05/0000Z 22.2N 88.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 22.3N 88.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 22.1N 89.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 22.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 21.0N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 20.0N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Gamma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-10-03 16:56:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 031456 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MERIDA MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 1(12) 1(13) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COZUMEL MX 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Gamma (AT5/AL252020)
2020-10-03 16:55:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GAMMA CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 the center of Gamma was located near 20.0, -87.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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