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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-09-30 10:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 300836 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 43 16(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 115W 50 12 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 115W 64 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 88(91) 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 68(68) 6(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 43(43) 6(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 32(64) 1(65) X(65) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 4(25) 1(26) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 48(59) 8(67) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 6(33) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-09-30 10:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 the center of Marie was located near 14.1, -112.5 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 5
2020-09-30 10:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 300836 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 ...MARIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 112.5W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 112.5 West. Marie is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely, and Marie is expected to become a hurricane by tonight. The storm is forecast to become a major hurricane within a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-30 10:36:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 042 WTPZ23 KNHC 300836 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.5W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 180SE 210SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.5W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.4N 114.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.5N 117.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.9N 120.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.8N 125.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 127.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 130.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N 133.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 112.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Marie Graphics
2020-09-30 04:37:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2020 02:37:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2020 02:37:11 GMT
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