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Tropical Storm Gamma Graphics
2020-10-03 11:42:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 09:42:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 09:42:26 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-10-03 11:05:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030905 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Gamma is strengthening. A central dense overcast with cloud tops to -85C has formed, along with an outer convective band in the eastern semicircle. The aircraft has reported maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 58 kt and reliable- looking surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer of 40-45 kt. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. The initial motion is again a little to the left of the previous advisory, 305/8 kt. During the next 24-36 h, Gamma is expected to turn northward as it tries to recurve into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. The track guidance, however, is in good agreement that the trough will bypass the tropical cyclone, with a ridge building to the north after 36 h. This should cause Gamma to turn westward or southwestward between the ridge and the Central American cyclonic gyre to the south. There is uncertainty as to whether Gamma will move over the Gulf of Mexico before this turn occurs, as the ECMWF keeps the center inland or very near the coast. The new forecast track is north of the ECMWF, but a little to the south of the previous track. The foreast track calls for landfall on the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula in about 12 h, followed by the center reaching the Gulf of Mexico in about 36 h and a track near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula thereafter. Conditions appear favorable for strengthening until landfall, and the forecast 12-h intensity of 50 kt could be conservative given current trends. The remainder of the intensity forecast is quite uncertain due to the possibility of land interaction, dry air entrainment, shear, and possible interaction with another system to the east. The intensity guidance again does not show much strengthening if Gamma emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, and that part of the new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous one. It should be noted that several models show a low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico after 120 h. Whether this will be Gamma or a new system is unclear at this time. The biggest threat from this large and slow-moving storm is the the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding, particularly near and over mountainous terrain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could result in life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, far western Cuba and well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas. 2. Gamma is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Sunday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 19.4N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.2N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 21.1N 87.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 21.7N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 05/0600Z 21.8N 88.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 21.6N 89.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 21.2N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 20.5N 92.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 19.5N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Gamma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-10-03 11:01:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 030901 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) MERIDA MX 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) 3(11) 5(16) 2(18) 1(19) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 76 4(80) 1(81) X(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) COZUMEL MX 50 7 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) COZUMEL MX 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BELIZE CITY 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Gamma (AT5/AL252020)
2020-10-03 11:00:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GAMMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 the center of Gamma was located near 19.4, -86.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 4
2020-10-03 11:00:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 847 WTNT35 KNHC 030900 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 86.9W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Dzilam, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula west of Dzilam to Progreso. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 86.9 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue at a slower forward speed today. A turn toward the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should move inland over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected before Gamma makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. After landfall, a slight weakening is expected. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure extrapolated by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across the northeastern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading into the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning area through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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