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Tropical Storm Beta Graphics
2020-09-19 10:54:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:54:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:54:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-19 10:54:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 190853 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Beta has generally changed little overnight. The storm is still quite asymmetric due to southwesterly wind shear with the low-level center located near the southwestern edge of the main area of deep convection. An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed peak winds in the 40-45 kt range, with most of the tropical-storm-force winds on the north side of the circulation. In addition, the latest Dvorak classifications are 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB. The initial intensity of 50 kt, based on the earlier aircraft data, is a little above the satellite estimates. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Beta again later this morning, and the data they collect will provide a better estimate of the intensity and structure of the storm. Beta is moving northward, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 360/7 kt. The shortwave trough that has been causing the north to northeastward motion during the past day or so is moving away and a weak mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north of the storm soon. This change in the steering pattern should cause Beta to turn westward and slow down later today and then move generally westward to northwestward through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. This motion should take Beta toward the Texas coast by Monday. Around the time Beta is forecast to be near the Texas coastline, the ridge is expected to retreat as another shortwave trough approaches, which should cause the storm to slow down even more and gradually turn to the northeast near the Texas coast by the middle of next week. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies close to the various consensus aids. As mentioned above, the tropical storm is still feeling some effects of southwesterly wind shear, but the upper-level pattern is expected to become more favorable for strengthening later today. Although the shear is expected to lessen, water vapor images show a swath of dry air approaching the storm from the west. Based on these mixed environmental conditions, slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and Beta is forecast to reach hurricane intensity in about 36 hours. Beyond a few days, the models suggest that there could be another increase in southwesterly shear, which in combination with land interaction should cause some weakening. Of course, the rate of weakening will depend on whether Beta is inland or offshore. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies at the high end of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the Texas coast early next week, with tropical storm conditions possible by late this weekend. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches are in effect, and residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 26.0N 92.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 26.6N 92.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 26.9N 93.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 27.1N 94.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 27.4N 95.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 27.7N 95.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 28.1N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 28.7N 95.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 29.7N 93.3W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-09-19 10:53:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 190853 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 4( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) BURAS LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 4( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 34 6 3( 9) 2(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) 4(19) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 5(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 55 6(61) 3(64) 2(66) 1(67) 1(68) 2(70) GFMX 280N 910W 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 6(15) MORGAN CITY LA 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 3(13) 4(17) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 5(13) LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) 4(15) 6(21) NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) 3(15) 6(21) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 65 20(85) 5(90) 1(91) 1(92) 1(93) X(93) GFMX 280N 930W 50 11 27(38) 8(46) 2(48) X(48) 2(50) 1(51) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 4(14) 4(18) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 5(16) 6(22) 5(27) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) CAMERON LA 34 5 14(19) 13(32) 7(39) 5(44) 5(49) 5(54) CAMERON LA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 4(17) 4(21) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 7(18) 6(24) 4(28) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) 7(21) 6(27) 4(31) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 3 18(21) 21(42) 15(57) 6(63) 3(66) 2(68) GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 6(19) 3(22) 3(25) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) HOUSTON TX 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 10(19) 13(32) 5(37) 3(40) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 4(18) 2(20) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 6(20) 1(21) FREEPORT TX 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 20(41) 11(52) 3(55) 2(57) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 3(18) 1(19) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 7 35(42) 30(72) 11(83) 4(87) 1(88) X(88) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 9( 9) 26(35) 17(52) 4(56) 1(57) 1(58) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 5(24) X(24) 1(25) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 9(23) 9(32) 6(38) 3(41) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MATAGORDA TX 34 2 14(16) 24(40) 21(61) 8(69) 3(72) 1(73) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 12(35) 3(38) 2(40) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) PORT O CONNOR 34 2 11(13) 22(35) 24(59) 11(70) 3(73) 1(74) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 14(37) 3(40) 2(42) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 1(15) 1(16) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 18(28) 19(47) 7(54) 2(56) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 3(20) X(20) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 19(39) 8(47) 2(49) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) 1(16) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 2 17(19) 30(49) 16(65) 10(75) 5(80) 1(81) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 2( 2) 13(15) 16(31) 9(40) 4(44) 1(45) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17) 2(19) X(19) MCALLEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 9(15) 8(23) X(23) MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 11(19) 9(28) X(28) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) 9(27) X(27) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 5( 6) 9(15) 8(23) 10(33) 6(39) 1(40) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KEESLER AB 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 5(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-09-19 10:52:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190852 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM HIGH ISLAND...TX TO CAMERON...LA INCLUDING SABINE LAKE AND CALCASIEU LAKE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD...TX TO CAMERON...LA INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY...CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE AND CALCASIEU LAKE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE * EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 92.5W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 92.5W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 92.3W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.6N 92.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.9N 93.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.1N 94.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.4N 95.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 27.7N 95.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.1N 96.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 28.7N 95.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 29.7N 93.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 92.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Graphics
2020-09-19 10:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:33:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 08:33:40 GMT
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