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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-19 04:58:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 190258 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Beta this evening found that the center has re-formed or been tugged northeastward by bursts of strong convection. While flying through that convection, the plane measured a peak flight-level wind of 57 kt at 10,000 feet before descending to 2500 feet. To the northwest of the center, the SFMR instrument on the plane measured a solid area of 46-48 kt, and there have been multiple ship reports in the region of 40-45 kt. Based on all these data, Beta's initial intensity is estimated to be 50 kt. The plane reported an extrapolated minimum pressure of 996 mb on the last pass through the center, which also corresponds to a typical 50-kt tropical storm. The aircraft fixes indicate that Beta is moving north-northeastward, or 030/10 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next 12 hours or so, but as mid-level ridging develops over the Southern Plains on Saturday, Beta should begin to slow down and turn westward. A slow motion in the direction of the Texas coast should continue through day 3, with a shortwave trough possibly causing the cyclone to recurve and move northeastward near or along the Texas coast on days 4 and 5. While there remains a large amount of spread among the track models, they all agree on this general scenario and indicate that Beta is likely to move very slowly as it makes its closest approach to the Texas coast. The initial position fixed by the plane necessitated a northward shift in the NHC official forecast compared to the previous forecast for the first 3 days, but it comes back in line with the previous prediction on days 4 and 5. Beta has been able to strengthen despite being affected by strong southwesterly shear. The shear could begin to relax over the next few days, particularly by day 2 and 3, which could allow for some further strengthening. The SHIPS guidance remains the most aggressive of the intensity models, and the NHC intensity forecast leans heavily toward those solutions given Beta's recent intensification trend (which SHIPS seemed to handle better). Beta is forecast to steadily strengthen and become a hurricane in a couple of days as it approaches the Texas coast. Some weakening is forecast on days 4 and 5 due to another increase in southwesterly shear and possible land interaction. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the Texas coast early next week, with tropical storm conditions possible by late this weekend. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches are in effect, and residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 25.5N 92.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 26.3N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 26.8N 92.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 26.8N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 27.0N 94.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 27.4N 95.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 27.8N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 28.4N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 29.4N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-09-19 04:58:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 190258 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) BURAS LA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 9 6(15) 3(18) 2(20) 1(21) 1(22) 3(25) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 4(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 49 15(64) 4(68) 2(70) 2(72) X(72) 2(74) GFMX 280N 910W 50 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 2(10) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 5(15) MORGAN CITY LA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) 2(14) 4(18) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 4(13) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) 2(14) 6(20) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 3(15) 5(20) GFMX 280N 930W 34 35 40(75) 11(86) 2(88) 2(90) X(90) 1(91) GFMX 280N 930W 50 2 30(32) 13(45) 3(48) 1(49) 2(51) 1(52) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) 2(13) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) FORT POLK LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 5(17) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 6(16) 4(20) 6(26) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) CAMERON LA 34 3 15(18) 12(30) 7(37) 7(44) 4(48) 6(54) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 4(20) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 9(18) 5(23) 4(27) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 8(20) 6(26) 5(31) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 1 15(16) 16(32) 15(47) 12(59) 4(63) 3(66) GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 4(19) 3(22) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) HOUSTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 15(27) 7(34) 4(38) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 6(18) 3(21) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 7(19) 2(21) FREEPORT TX 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 14(26) 17(43) 5(48) 4(52) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 3(15) 1(16) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 25(28) 29(57) 17(74) 8(82) 2(84) 1(85) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 3( 3) 16(19) 19(38) 11(49) 2(51) 1(52) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 7(20) 1(21) 1(22) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) 11(28) 6(34) 4(38) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MATAGORDA TX 34 1 9(10) 20(30) 19(49) 16(65) 5(70) 2(72) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 17(28) 4(32) 2(34) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) 1(12) PORT O CONNOR 34 1 7( 8) 19(27) 19(46) 19(65) 5(70) 2(72) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 18(30) 5(35) 2(37) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 1(13) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 12(19) 23(42) 10(52) 2(54) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19) 1(20) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 19(33) 11(44) 2(46) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) 1(17) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 10(11) 27(38) 22(60) 14(74) 6(80) X(80) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) 14(40) 5(45) 2(47) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 3(20) 1(21) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 9(22) 2(24) MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 11(18) 10(28) 2(30) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 10(18) 10(28) 1(29) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 4( 5) 11(16) 9(25) 12(37) 9(46) 1(47) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) KEESLER AB 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 3(10) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-09-19 04:57:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190257 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT MANSFIELD...TX TO HIGH ISLAND...TX INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY...CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT ARANSAS...TX TO HIGH ISLAND...TX. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE AND EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TO MORGAN CITY LA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD...TX TO HIGH ISLAND...TX INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY...CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE * EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 92.3W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 92.3W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.3N 92.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 26.8N 92.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.8N 93.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.0N 94.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.4N 95.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 27.8N 96.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 28.4N 95.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.4N 94.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 92.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Graphics
2020-09-19 04:47:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 02:47:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 02:47:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-19 04:46:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 241 WTNT43 KNHC 190246 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 Conventional satellite imagery shows that Wilfred's surface circulation has lost quite a bit of definition during the last several hours, and it has been difficult to pinpoint the center. Additionally, deep convection has become less organized and the cloud tops just to the east of the estimated center position have warmed considerably. The initial intensity is generously held at 35 kt for this advisory and is in best agreement with blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The GFS and ECMWF global model soundings indicate 30-35 kt of northeasterly shear at about 300 mb, and it's apparently undercutting the much lighter, diffluent southeasterly flow above. Statistical-dynamical guidance, however, still show an outside chance of some strengthening Saturday, and the NHC forecast follows suit. Afterward, a combination of Teddy's massive outflow and increasing northwesterly shear produced by an mid- to upper-level trough to the north of the cyclone, should induce slow weakening on Sunday and this trend should continue through the forecast period. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/16 kt, and the cyclone is being steered by a low to mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge to the north. A few of the global models are hinting at a slow turn toward the north-northwest prior to dissipation as the steering pattern becomes very meridional with developing high amplitude high pressure over the eastern Atlantic, and Hurricane Teddy well to the northwest creating a large weakness over the western Atlantic. For now, the NHC forecast shows some reduction in forward speed at day 3, before dissipation, and lies close to the consensus aids, HCCA and TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 12.8N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 13.5N 38.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 14.5N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 15.8N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 16.7N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 17.3N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 17.9N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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