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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-19 10:32:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190832 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 Helpful AMSR microwave imagery from near 4Z revealed that Wilfred consists of a small low embedded within a broader elongated area of low pressure. A skinny, ragged band of convection wraps around the western and southern portions of the tropical storm, but Wilfred is only producing a small amount of convection near its center. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are generally near 35 kt, and the intensity is held at that value. No noteworthy changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts. Wilfred should continue to move generally west-northwestward for the next few days, steered by a subtropical ridge to the north. Small fluctuations in intensity are possible for the next day or two, but Wilfred should be on the overall decline by the end of the weekend due to increasing wind shear and an expected influx of dry, stable air. The dynamical guidance consensus is that Wilfred will open into a trough and dissipate in about 72 h, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. Both the NHC track and intensity forecasts are based on the multi-model consensus throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 13.1N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 13.8N 39.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 14.8N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 15.8N 44.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 16.5N 46.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 16.8N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Wilfred (AT3/AL232020)
2020-09-19 10:31:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WOEFUL WILFRED HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 19 the center of Wilfred was located near 13.1, -36.9 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Public Advisory Number 4
2020-09-19 10:31:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 190831 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Wilfred Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 ...WOEFUL WILFRED HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 36.9W ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 36.9 West. Wilfred is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Small fluctuations in intensity are possible over the weekend. A general weakening trend should begin by late Sunday and Wilfred is forecast to become a remnant low in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-09-19 10:31:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 190831 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Beta Graphics
2020-09-19 07:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 05:33:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 03:33:46 GMT
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