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Subtropical Storm Alpha Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-18 22:49:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 248 WTNT24 KNHC 182049 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN PORTUGAL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALPHA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS FROM THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR SEA AND ATMOSPHERE AT WWW.IPMA.PT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 8.4W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 8.4W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 9.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 42.1N 6.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.4N 8.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-18 22:45:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 182045 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 There haven't been a lot of changes with Wilfred today, with the northern side of the circulation looking rather dry while the center remains close to a burst of convection. The initial wind speed is kept 35 kt, closest to the TAFB classification. Wilfred could strengthen some during the next day or so before increasing upper-level westerlies winds likely begin by Sunday. A gradual weakening is expected into early next week, though the model guidance is in worse agreement than the last advisory due to the positioning of an upper-level low. The forecast continues to show the storm ending up on the convergent side of the low and dissipating, close to the previous one. Wilfred is moving west-northwestward at about 16 kt, after accounting for a re-positioning westward. Most of the guidance agrees on a scenario that maintains this track for the next few days, with a turn toward the west as the cyclones dissipates. The new forecast is closest to the GFS-based guidance. Similar to the intensity forecast, however, there are some models that suggest Wilfred could slow down and turn to the right in a couple of days if it is stronger than anticipated. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 12.5N 34.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 13.2N 36.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 14.3N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 15.4N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 16.4N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 17.1N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 17.5N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Graphics
2020-09-18 22:44:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 20:44:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 20:44:51 GMT
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-09-18 22:44:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 182044 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Wilfred (AT3/AL232020)
2020-09-18 22:44:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WILFRED COULD STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 18 the center of Wilfred was located near 12.5, -34.4 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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