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Subtropical Storm Alpha Public Advisory Number 1
2020-09-18 18:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 430 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 181633 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alpha Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020 430 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM ALPHA FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF PORTUGAL... ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED BUT BRING WINDS AND RAIN TO PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL... SUMMARY OF 430 PM GMT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.9N 9.3W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF LISBON PORTUGAL MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Portugal should monitor the progress of Alpha. Additional information on this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 430 PM GMT (1630 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alpha was located near latitude 39.9 North, longitude 9.3 West. The storm is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next day or so before dissipation. Alpha should move across the coast of west-central Portugal during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with rapid weakening over land through the weekend. Alpha is a small storm. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...Information on wind hazards from Alpha can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. RAINFALL...Alpha is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) of rainfall, with isolated amounts of 3 inches (75 mm) over the northern portion of Portugal and into west-central Spain through Saturday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Subtropical Storm Alpha Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-09-18 18:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1630 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 181633 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALPHA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242020 1630 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 AT 1630Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 9.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Subtropical Storm Alpha Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-18 18:32:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1630 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 181632 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALPHA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242020 1630 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN PORTUGAL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALPHA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS FROM THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR SEA AND ATMOSPHERE AT WWW.IPMA.PT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 9.3W AT 18/1630Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 9.3W AT 18/1630Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 10.3W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 41.5N 7.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 44.2N 4.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N 9.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-18 16:35:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 181435 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure over the eastern Atlantic has become better-defined this morning. In addition, scatterometer data also show a closed circulation, albeit with some rain contamination causing some noise near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, in accordance with scatterometer data from last night (this morning's data missed the eastern side of the storm). Thus Wilfred has formed, continuing the record-setting pace of the 2020 hurricane season since it is the earliest 21st named storm on record, about 3 weeks earlier than Vince of 2005. Further intensification is possible during the next day or two before a large upper-level trough is forecast to drop into the path of the storm and stay there for at least a few days. That should promote weakening due to a substantial increase in shear, and most of the global models show this tropical cyclone opening up into a trough by day 5. The official forecast follows this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the consensus and corrected-consensus aids. Wilfred is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt. The storm is forecast to continue this motion for the next several days, owing to steering from the low- to middle-level subtropical ridge. The guidance is in fair agreement, and the official forecast is near or west of the consensus at all times, leaning in the direction of the HCCA corrected-consensus. I should mention that if Wilfred intensifies more than expected, it would probably move a bit right of the forecast track for a while due to the expected southwesterly flow at higher levels, before eventually turning back west-northwestward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 11.9N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 12.6N 34.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 13.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 14.5N 40.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 15.6N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 16.7N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 17.3N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 18.0N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Graphics
2020-09-18 16:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 14:33:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 15:41:16 GMT
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