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Tropical Storm Karina Graphics
2020-09-15 16:35:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 14:35:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 14:35:56 GMT
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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-09-15 16:34:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 151434 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Teddy's structure is slowly improving. Visible and IR imagery indicate that inner-core convection has increased, despite the continued presence of dry slots. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support the initial intensity of 55 kt. Teddy is still heading west-northwestward for the moment with a forward speed estimate of 11 kt. Teddy will likely turn northwestward today and continue steadily moving northwestward along the southwest periphery of a ridge over the central Atlantic for the next several days. In fact, all available guidance indicates that once it makes that northwestward turn, Teddy will barely deviate from its heading or forward speed for the rest of the week. The latest NHC track forecast is virtually identical to the previous one. The model spread is smaller than usual and confidence in the track forecast is high. Teddy's low shear and warm SST environment should be conducive for further strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast is largely unchanged. Some dry air in the environment could restrict Teddy's intensification rate, but is not expected to prevent Teddy from becoming a hurricane later today or tonight. Continued strengthening is expected thereafter and Teddy is forecast to become a major hurricane within the next few days. On the whole, the intensity guidance is a little lower at the longer-range times, so the NHC forecast at days 4 and 5 is at the very top end of the guidance. I'd rather see a more consistent signal from the models before making a larger change to the forecast, especially given the impressive depiction of Teddy in the global model forecasts at that time. The 34 kt wind radii were expanded to the northwest of Teddy based on data from an 1136 UTC ASCAT-A overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 14.9N 48.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 16.1N 49.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 17.4N 50.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 18.9N 52.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 20.3N 53.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 21.5N 55.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 24.0N 57.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 27.1N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-15 16:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TEDDY WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 15 the center of Teddy was located near 14.0, -47.0 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Teddy Public Advisory Number 12
2020-09-15 16:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 151433 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 ...TEDDY WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 47.0W ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 47.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A steady northwest motion at 10 to 15 mph is expected through the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast for the next several days. Teddy will likely become a hurricane later today or tonight and could reach major hurricane strength in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-09-15 16:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 151433 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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