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Tropical Storm Karina Graphics
2020-09-16 05:11:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 03:11:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 03:53:30 GMT
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Hurricane Sally Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-16 04:57:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 02:57:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-09-16 04:43:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160242 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Satellite imagery shows that Karina's outflow has improved over the past 6 hours, but persistent deep convection over the low-level center has shown some signs of warming/weakening in the last couple hours. The initial intensity for this advisory is maintained at 50 kt, primarily based on a blend of subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of 45-55 kt from SAB/TAFB/HFO. Karina is moving toward the northwest at 10 kt (310/10 kt), steered by a mid- and upper-level ridge to the northeast and north, respectively. Although some relaxation of the recent northeasterly to easterly shear is expected to continue in the short-term, gradual weakening is expected as Karina is now over sub-26C water. As Karina rounds the southwestern portion of the deep-layer ridge in about 24 hours, south to southwesterly shear is expected to increase as the cyclone moves over even cooler waters and ingests increasingly dry air. This will lead to the demise of the cyclone, and Karina is expected to degenerate to a remnant low in a couple of days, dissipating shortly thereafter. As the system weakens, it will be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade wind flow supplied by a surface high centered to the distant northwest, causing a slowing in forward speed, and a turn toward the west and southwest. The new official track forecast has changed little from the previous, and lies very close to the dynamical consensus TVCE. The new intensity forecast is little changed, and closely follows both the statistical and dynamical guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 21.3N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 23.0N 125.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 23.4N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 23.5N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z 22.5N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard
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Tropical Storm Teddy Graphics
2020-09-16 04:36:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 02:36:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 02:36:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-09-16 04:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160236 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 123.0W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 123.0W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 122.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.0N 125.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.4N 126.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.5N 127.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.5N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 123.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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