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Hurricane Sally Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-15 22:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 20:40:25 GMT
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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-09-15 22:39:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 152039 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Overall, Teddy's organization has continued to slowly improve during the past several hours. AMSR microwave imagery near 1630 UTC showed that a low- to mid-level eye feature is beginning to form. The overall convective pattern has also improved, though not enough to increase the intensity estimates at this time, which only range from 45-55 kt. The intensity is therefore held at 55 kt, but it does appear that some intensification is imminent. The AMSR image showed indications of a microwave signature commonly associated with rapid intensification in favorable environments. Low shear and warm SSTs along the forecast track are certainly conducive, though dry air continues to be a possible limiting factor. The dry air is probably the reason that dry slots continue to occasionally appear in IR imagery near the center of Teddy. Rapid intensification probabilities are not particularly high; the SHIPS RI gives a 22 percent chance of a 30-kt increase during the next 24 h while DTOPS shows a mere 1 percent chance. The rest of the intensity models forecast only modest strengthening for the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is at the top of the intensity guidance for the next 48 h and slightly above all of the models after that, but I am hesitant to lower it any further at this time given the recent microwave signature and overall improvement in Teddy's structure. In contrast, Teddy's track outlook remains straightforward, and no changes of note were made to the official forecast. The tropical storm is turning gradually toward the northwest and should begin moving in that direction tonight. A ridge over the central Atlantic should then steer Teddy in that general direction for the rest of the week. The model spread is still much lower than normal, and confidence in the track forecast is fairly high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 14.6N 47.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.5N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 18.2N 51.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 19.7N 53.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 21.0N 54.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 22.5N 55.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 25.4N 58.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 28.5N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karina (EP1/EP162020)
2020-09-15 22:39:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COOLER WATERS WILL SOON WEAKEN KARINA... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 the center of Karina was located near 20.7, -122.1 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 12
2020-09-15 22:39:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 152038 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...COOLER WATERS WILL SOON WEAKEN KARINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 122.1W ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 122.1 West. Karina is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Some slowing in forward speed and a turn toward the west and southwest is expected thereafter. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening should begin by tonight, and Karina is forecast to become a remnant low in two or three days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Birchard
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Tropical Storm Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-09-15 22:38:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 152038 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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