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Tropical Storm HENRI Forecast Discussion Number 8

2015-09-10 22:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 10 2015 000 WTNT43 KNHC 102033 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 500 PM AST THU SEP 10 2015 Henri continues to struggle with most of its deep convection well removed to the northeast of the center. In fact, it is taking on some characteristics of a subtropical cyclone with recent scatterometer data indicating that the radius of maximum winds has increased to a rather high value of 120 n mi. The initial wind speed will remain 35 kt on the basis of 30-35 kt winds observed in partial scatterometer pass that missed the area that likely has the strongest winds. Southerly shear is still forecast to relax overnight near Henri, which theoretically could result in intensification during the next day or so before the cyclone moves over cold water on Saturday. However, dry air aloft persists near the storm and the overall cloud pattern is quite disorganized. The unfavorable factors are starting to outweigh the favorable conditions, so the official intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, a little below the model consensus. Extratropical transition is expected within 2 days due to strong shear and very cold water. A reasonable alternative solution provided by some of the global models is that the cyclone stays weak and opens up into a trough during the day on Friday. Henri is moving faster to the north, now about 13 kt. The storm should continue to accelerate northward tonight and northeastward tomorrow due to it encountering faster steering from the subtropical ridge. After that time, an even faster northeastward and then eastward motion is predicted when the cyclone becomes embedded in the mid-latitude flow. The guidance has trended to the left with the track of Henri, perhaps due to a weaker forecast representation of the storm. The NHC forecast is shifted in that direction, although remains on the right side of the guidance envelope. If it survives, the cyclone should become absorbed by a larger extratropical low by day 4 over the far North Atlantic. The latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be post-tropical, is based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 33.9N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 36.1N 60.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 39.7N 59.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 43.5N 56.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 46.8N 51.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/1800Z 48.5N 36.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm HENRI Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2015-09-10 22:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 000 FONT13 KNHC 102033 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 21(35) X(35) X(35) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Storm HENRI (AT3/AL082015)

2015-09-10 22:33:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HENRI REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 10 the center of HENRI was located near 33.9, -60.7 with movement N at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm HENRI Public Advisory Number 8

2015-09-10 22:33:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 10 2015 000 WTNT33 KNHC 102033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 500 PM AST THU SEP 10 2015 ...HENRI REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 60.7W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 60.7 West. Henri is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through tonight. A faster northeastward motion is predicted on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours and Henri could become a post-tropical cyclone by Saturday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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