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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 18
2020-11-05 03:36:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 050236 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 ...ETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 86.3W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 86.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected later tonight through Thursday morning. A turn toward the north, and then the northeast is forecast to occur Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move across Honduras through Thursday afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by Thursday night. Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected while Eta remains over land, and Eta will likely degenerate to a remnant low or trough of low pressure on Thursday. However, re-intensification is forecast once the center of Eta moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Monday morning: Portions of Honduras, Guatemala and Belize: An additional 15 to 30 inches (380 to 760 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras. Portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador and Costa Rica: An additional 15 to 20 inches (380 to 510 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm), isolated maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm). Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into western Cuba: 10 to 25 inches (255 to 635 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-11-05 03:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 050236 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 2(16) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) 1(22) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-11-05 03:36:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 050236 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS ON HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 86.3W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 86.3W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 86.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.0N 87.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.1N 87.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.2N 86.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.2N 85.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 83.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.4N 82.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.3N 79.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.7N 81.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 86.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-11-05 03:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050236 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 Odalys has devolved into a sheared tropical cyclone, with the bulk of the deep convection displaced to the northeast of the now fully exposed low-level circulation center. The initial intensity has been held at 40 kt based on a blend of Dvorak satellite current intensity (CI) estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB. A 04/2142 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 40 kt also supports this intensity. Odalys is now moving west-northwestward, or 295/09 kt. The cyclone is expected to gradually turn more westward during the next 24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west as Odalys degenerates into a shallow low pressure system. By 48 hours and beyond, the remnant low is forecast to move west-southwestward to southwestward under the influence of low-level northeasterly trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the simple-consensus track model, TVCE. The current southwesterly deep-layer vertical wind shear of near 30 kt is forecast to steadily increase to 40 kt during the next 72 hours. Sea-surface temperatures decreasing to less than 26 deg C will also help hasten the weakening process during that time, resulting in Odalys becoming a remnant low in about 36 hours, followed by dissipation in 96 hours, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the simple-consensus intensity models IVCN and ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 18.1N 121.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 18.7N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 18.9N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 18.6N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 17.9N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1200Z 17.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z 16.2N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Odalys (EP5/EP202020)
2020-11-05 03:35:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ODALYS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING OVERNIGHT... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY... As of 7:00 PM PST Wed Nov 4 the center of Odalys was located near 18.1, -121.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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