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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-11-04 21:46:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 042046 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 2(15) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-04 21:45:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN A FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO HONDURAS... ...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 3:00 PM CST Wed Nov 4 the center of Eta was located near 13.9, -85.7 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Odalys Graphics
2020-11-04 21:37:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 20:37:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 20:37:54 GMT
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-11-04 21:36:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 042036 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 100 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 The center of Odalys has become easier to find this afternoon. A well-defined low-level center has become apparent on visible satellite imagery, about 50 nm southwest of the deepest convection. Despite this somewhat disheveled appearance, a series of ASCAT passes earlier this afternoon found winds of 35-40 kt in a band north of the center. Allowing for a bit of instrument undersampling, and blending the latest SAB and TAFB satellite estimates, the initial intensity was raised slightly to 40 kt for this advisory. Odalys continues to move northwestward this afternoon at 315/15 kt. The track forecast philosophy has remained largely unchanged. The storm will continue to head northwest in the short-term, situated between a deep-layer ridge over Mexico and a mid to upper-level trough located to its northeast. This same trough will likely generate high enough vertical wind shear to cause the low and mid level centers of Odalys to completely separate in the next 24 h, resulting in the low-level center of Odalys to bend west and then west-southwest as it comes under the influence of the low-level easterly trade winds. The latest track guidance is in good agreement on this evolution with only minor speed differences after Odalys becomes a shallow vortex and only small adjustments were made to the official forecast track. Odalys may maintain its current intensity over the next 12 h if it is able to maintain active downshear convection. Thereafter, the southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase above 35 kt in the latest GFS-based SHIPS guidance. This should import very dry mid-level air near the center and will likely choke off any remaining convective bursts. Odalys is expected to become a shallow remnant low on Friday afternoon, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 17.7N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 18.8N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 18.7N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 18.0N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0600Z 17.2N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z 16.3N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-11-04 21:35:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 042035 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 1 8( 9) 9(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
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