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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-10-27 15:45:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 271445 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 1500 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA BAY...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ALLEN TO PROGRESO MEXICO * COZUMEL * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 89.5W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 89.5W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 89.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.7N 91.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.3N 89.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.2N 85.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 220SE 300SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 89.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-27 12:53:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 271152 CCA TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Corrected status of Zeta from hurricane to tropical storm For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Zeta, located inland over the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Berg/Papin
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-27 12:43:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 271142 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Oct 27 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the end of the week. Some further development will be possible thereafter and continue through the weekend while the system moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg/Papin
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Summary for Tropical Storm Zeta (AT3/AL282020)
2020-10-27 12:42:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ZETA NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 7:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 the center of Zeta was located near 21.3, -89.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 11A
2020-10-27 12:42:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 271142 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 700 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 ...ZETA NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 89.0W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Allen to Progreso Mexico * Cozumel * Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located over the northern Yucatan Peninsula near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 89.0 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. Zeta should turn toward the north tonight, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, and over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight. Zeta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and make landfall within the hurricane warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, and become a hurricane again later today. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Mexico within areas of onshore winds. Along the northern Gulf coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion Bay...2-4 ft Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of Zetas track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the Cayman Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible across western Cuba through Tuesday. An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast tonight, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday. The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will push northeast from eastern Louisiana, across southern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning area in Mexico this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf coast by late Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late Wednesday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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