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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-15 07:20:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 150520 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A weak area of low pressure near the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, well to the east of its center. Strong upper-level winds are expected to continue to inhibit development while the system moves west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form over the weekend several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Some slow development will be possible thereafter into early next week while the system moves southwestward and then westward, passing about midway between Bermuda and the northern Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-15 07:20:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 150520 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Norbert, located about 150 miles south-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Norbert Graphics
2020-10-15 04:38:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2020 02:38:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2020 03:23:31 GMT
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-10-15 04:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150237 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020 There are a few convective cells located more than 60 n mi to the west-northwest of Norbert's center, but for the most part, organized deep convection ceased around the time of the previous advisory. Assuming a spin down of the circulation since the afternoon ASCAT pass, and based on lower satellite estimates, Norbert's estimated intensity is now 25 kt. Further weakening is expected due to cool waters and moderate-to-strong shear, and if deep convection does not return soon, Norbert will degenerate into a remnant low overnight. Global model fields indicate that the remnant low will open up into a trough and dissipate just off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula in about 24 hours. Norbert has slowed down a bit, now that its shallower circulation is not being influenced by the steering around a mid-level low to its southwest as much as it was earlier today. The current motion is toward the north-northwest (330/12 kt), and Norbert is expected to slow down further until the time it dissipates. The updated NHC track forecast lies on top of the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 25.7N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 26.7N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-15 04:37:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVERNIGHT... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 the center of Norbert was located near 25.7, -115.7 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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