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Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-10-19 13:53:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 UTC MON OCT 19 2020 410 WTNT22 KNHC 191153 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1200 UTC MON OCT 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 55.5W AT 19/1200Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 55.5W AT 19/1200Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 55.6W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 25.8N 55.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.0N 55.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.9N 55.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 28.0N 57.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 40SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.6N 59.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 60SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.5N 60.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 90SE 90SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 31.7N 62.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 33.5N 63.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 55.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-19 13:33:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 191132 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Oct 19 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Roberts
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-19 13:29:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 191129 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms have increased in coverage and become much better organized in association with a large low pressure system located about 700 miles southeast of Bermuda. Based on overnight development trends, a special advisory will be issued on a tropical depression this morning as the system meanders well southeast of Bermuda. See NOAA High Seas Forecast products for more details on this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. A broad area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system is possible late this week while it moves slowly northwestward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Roberts
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tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-19 08:20:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 190620 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sun Oct 18 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-19 07:48:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 190548 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms have increased in organization in association with a large non-tropical low pressure system located about 700 miles southeast of Bermuda. Although environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development during the next day or so, a subtropical or tropical depression could still develop later today or on Tuesday. However, upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable for tropical cyclone formation by late Tuesday and Wednesday while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. See NOAA High Seas Forecast products for more details on this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A broad area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system is possible late this week while it moves slowly northwestward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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