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Tropical Storm Peter Graphics
2021-09-20 22:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 20:34:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 20:34:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-09-20 22:34:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 202033 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 Satellite images show that Rose hasn't changed much during the past several hours, with the center on the northern side of the cloud shield. The last microwave pass from a few hours ago showed that the mid- and low-level centers of the cyclone remained 60-90 n mi apart, which is probably a sign that it isn't strengthening. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt based on continuity, and hopefully scatterometer data will be available for the next advisory due to the recent high bias of the conventional satellite estimates. The window for strengthening of the tropical cyclone is closing soon due to increasing shear and likely intrusions of dry mid-level air. These factors should cause the storm to start a weakening trend sometime tomorrow. The long-term future of Rose doesn't look golden either due to further increasing shear from an incoming upper- level trough. The new forecast is just a shade lower than the previous one, near the model consensus, with Rose likely sinking to a depression in a few days and degenerating to a remnant low by day 5. The initial motion remains northwestward at about 14 kt. Rose is is likely to continue moving in that general direction during the next couple of days around the southwestern and western periphery of a strong subtropical ridge. Beyond that time, guidance is coming into good agreement on a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic causing the cyclone to recurve to the north, northeast and even east-northeastward by the weekend. While the models don't agree on how sharp of a turn will occur, they are at least consistent that this trough will take the storm into a hostile environment and decay. The new forecast is again adjusted well to northeast at long range, and still might not be far enough to the east. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 18.4N 34.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 20.0N 35.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 21.8N 36.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 23.3N 37.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 24.5N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 26.0N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 27.3N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 29.2N 38.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 31.5N 34.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-09-20 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 202032 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 Peter's evolution on satellite today is nearly a repeat of yesterday, with the deep convection having been stripped well east of the center in the morning and then redeveloping over and east of the center by the afternoon. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Peter this morning and early afternoon provided data during a few different passes through the northeast quadrant that supported peak surface winds of 40-45 kt. Since the convection has returned it is reasonable to assume that no weakening has occurred since the aircraft departed the cyclone, and the initial advisory intensity remains 45 kt. Vertical wind shear is forecast to remain near 30 kt for the next few days as Peter interacts with an upper trough to its west, so some weakening is anticipated during that time. By late in the forecast period, the shear should lessen somewhat as the cyclone lifts north of the upper trough. Therefore, slow strengthening is indicated by late this week. There remains a possibility that Peter does not survive the shear over the next few days. However, the storm thus far has shown some resiliency to the hostile environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one and remains near the various intensity consensus solutions. Peter continues to move west-northwest but at a slightly slower pace of around 12 kt. The forecast track reasoning for the cyclone remains the same. The west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next two days as the system remains to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. By Wednesday, Peter should slow down and turn northwest then north as it reaches a developing weakness in the ridge carved out by a mid-latitude trough moving across the northeastern United States. There were no significant changes to the track or the track guidance from the previous advisory, and the latest NHC track is closest to the TVCN and GFEX consensus tracks. Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time. However, locally heavy rain is possible today and Tuesday when Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 20.0N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 20.6N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 21.4N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 22.2N 66.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 23.1N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 24.0N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 25.1N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 27.8N 66.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 30.5N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-09-20 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 202032 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Peter (AT1/AL162021)
2021-09-20 22:32:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PETER REFUSES TO SUCCUMB TO STRONG WIND SHEAR... ...STORM EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 20 the center of Peter was located near 20.0, -61.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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