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Tropical Storm Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-09-21 22:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 212036 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Rose (AT2/AL172021)
2021-09-21 22:36:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ROSE HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM.... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 21 the center of Rose was located near 22.5, -37.7 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 11
2021-09-21 22:36:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 212036 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 ...ROSE HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM.... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 37.7W ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 37.7 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The storm should gradually turn toward the north during the next couple of days and move more to the northeast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rose could decay into a tropical depression this evening and degenerate into a remnant low by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-21 20:51:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 211742 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Peter, located more than 100 miles northeast of Puerto Rico, and on Tropical Storm Rose, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. A small but concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms is redeveloping along a tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Thursday or Friday while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of Odette, is located about 700 miles west-northwest of the westernmost Azores. This low could acquire some subtropical characteristics over marginally warm waters during the next few days while it executes a small cyclonic loop over the north-central Atlantic Ocean. However, by the end of the week, this system is expected to encounter more hostile environmental conditions. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Papin
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-21 20:50:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 211735 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 21 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be somewhat conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical cyclone could form in 2 or 3 days while the low moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. This system is forecast to move over cooler waters and into a more stable environment by the weekend, which should inhibit further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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