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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-20 07:25:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 200525 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Peter, located a few hundred miles east of the northernmost Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rose, located several hundred miles west of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands. A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A storm-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of Odette, is located a couple of hundred miles southeast of Newfoundland. This low could acquire some subtropical characteristics by the middle of this week as it moves slowly eastward and then southeastward over warmer waters across the north-central Atlantic Ocean. Additional information on this system, including storm warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Rose are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Rose are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-20 07:10:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 200509 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 19 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula within the next couple of days. Thereafter, some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the middle and latter parts of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Peter Graphics
2021-09-20 04:51:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 02:51:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 03:22:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rose Graphics
2021-09-20 04:51:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 02:51:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 03:28:39 GMT
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-09-20 04:51:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 200251 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 Peter is a sheared tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that an earlier convective burst near the center of Peter has collapsed tonight. Although the low-level center is now displaced at least 60 n mi west of the edge of the convective cloud mass, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Peter has found the cyclone is a bit stronger tonight. The aircraft measured flight-level (925 mb) winds of 58 kt and SFMR winds of 45 kt or so. These data support raising the initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory. Peter's wind field is very asymmetric, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 120 n mi from the center only in its northeast quadrant. The moderate to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear that is plaguing the system is forecast to persist during the next several days. Thus, despite sufficient oceanic heat content along its forecast track, the official NHC intensity forecast does not show any further intensification. In fact, some gradual weakening is forecast since the system appears likely to struggle sustaining organized convection near its center, as suggested by GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery. The official NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward in the near-term to account for the stronger initial intensity, but otherwise closely follows the HCCA and IVCN aids and shows gradual weakening this week. While the official NHC forecast shows Peter remaining a tropical cyclone through the forecast period, the GFS suggests Peter could struggle to even maintain its closed low-level circulation in the coming days. Therefore, it is plausible that the cyclone could degenerate into an open wave and weaken somewhat quicker than forecast. Peter is moving west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt, along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. This general motion should continue for the next couple of days. Thereafter, the track forecast becomes more challenging. A low- to mid-level ridge is expected to build over the western Atlantic by midweek, which would keep the weakening cyclone on a more northwestward trajectory. But, a mid-level shortwave is forecast to drop southward and erode the southern extent of the ridge, which should eventually draw Peter more northward during the middle and latter parts of the week. There is more spread noted in the track guidance at days 3-5, as the timing of this northward turn is uncertain. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one, and it lies near the center of the guidance envelope and closer to the TVCA and HCCA aids. Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time. However, locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 18.6N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 19.3N 60.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 20.1N 62.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 21.0N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 22.0N 66.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 23.0N 67.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 23.9N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 25.7N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 28.0N 67.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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