je.st
news
Tag: tropical
Tropical Storm Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-09-20 22:31:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 202031 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-09-20 22:31:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 202030 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 34.4W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 34.4W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 34.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 35.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.8N 36.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.3N 37.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N 38.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 39.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.3N 40.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 29.2N 38.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 31.5N 34.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 34.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
rose
storm
advisory
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-20 19:35:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 201735 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Peter, located northeast of the northernmost Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rose, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands are still showing some signs of organization, although there does not appear to be a surface circulation at this time. Upper-level winds, however, are expected to become conducive for further development by midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Thursday or Friday while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A storm-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of Odette, is located a few hundred miles southeast of Newfoundland. This low could acquire some subtropical characteristics by the middle of this week as it moves slowly southeastward over warmer waters across the north-central Atlantic Ocean before moving northward over cooler waters over the weekend. Additional information on this system, including storm warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-20 19:13:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 201712 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 20 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula within the next couple of days. Thereafter, some gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form by the latter part of this week while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-09-20 16:47:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 201447 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 While a cursory look at visible satellite images would suggest Rose is intensifying, other data show that it remains a sheared storm. The low- and mid-level centers remain roughly 90 n mi apart according to SSMIS microwave, and a 1038Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass showed no significant change in intensity overnight. The current wind speed is kept at 35 kt, with a much heavier weight on the 30-kt scatterometer pass than Dvorak estimates near 55 kt. This is a good example of the value of the scatterometer which can tell the forecaster much more about the surface winds that conventional satellite estimates can miss (even if the data is possibly too low with all the thunderstorm activity). There are a lot of thorns in the way of Rose blossoming into a stronger storm. Increasing shear and drier mid-level air are on the way for tonight, competing against the somewhat warm SSTs. Thus Rose has about a day to flower into a moderate tropical storm, and no significant change was made to the short term forecast. At longer range, stronger shear and dry air should pull the petals off Rose one-by-one, causing the cyclone to slowly weaken. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, with some small 5-kt downward adjustments. Rose could even shrivel up into a remnant low by day 5, but that's not shown yet in the forecast. The initial motion remains northwestward at about 14 kt. Rose is still expected to move generally northwestward around the southwestern and western periphery of a strong subtropical ridge during the next few days. Around day 3, however, a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic is forecast to dig southeastward, causing the cyclone to turn northward and eventually northeastward by the weekend. Guidance is in much better agreement on this scenario than the last cycle (though there are still some westward model solutions), and the new NHC track forecast is shifted northeastward at long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 17.3N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 19.0N 34.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 21.0N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 22.6N 37.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 24.1N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 25.4N 39.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 26.7N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 29.0N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 31.0N 38.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
rose
storm
Sites : [122] [123] [124] [125] [126] [127] [128] [129] [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] [135] [136] [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] next »