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Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)

2020-09-30 16:43:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...MARIE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 the center of Marie was located near 14.2, -113.8 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 6

2020-09-30 16:43:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 301443 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020 ...MARIE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 113.8W ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 113.8 West. Marie is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Marie is expected to become a hurricane this evening or tonight. Marie could then become a major hurricane by late Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 6

2020-09-30 16:43:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 301443 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.8W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 180SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.8W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.5N 118.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.1N 121.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.9N 123.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.9N 125.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.0N 127.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 19.8N 130.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.1N 133.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 113.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-09-30 13:41:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 301141 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is expected to move westward over the next couple of days and interact with a frontal system, producing a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea by Thursday night or Friday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-09-30 13:41:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 301141 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Marie, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Thereafter, some slow development is possible through early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg

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