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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-30 10:36:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 042 WTPZ23 KNHC 300836 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.5W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 180SE 210SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.5W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.4N 114.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.5N 117.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.9N 120.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.8N 125.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 127.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 130.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N 133.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 112.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-30 07:18:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 300517 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 29 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Marie, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Thereafter, some slow development is possible over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Marie are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Marie are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-30 07:17:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 300516 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea is expected to move westward to west-northwestward over the next few days and interact with a frontal system, producing a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea by Thursday night or Friday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Marie Graphics
2020-09-30 04:37:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2020 02:37:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2020 02:37:11 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-30 04:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 300235 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Infrared and passive microwave imagery indicate that Marie has continued to become better organized despite moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear of about 15 kt. The deep convection is now primarily confined to a single tightly curved band that wraps around the west side of the circulation. A late-arriving 29/1718Z ASCAT-C scatterometer pass revealed that Marie has a very tight inner-core circulation with a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of only 10-15 nmi and a small 34-kt wind radii extending outward to only about 20 nmi The scatterometer data also showed some 34-38 kt surface wind vectors in all quadrants. A blend of the scatterometer wind data and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of of T2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, the intensity has been increased to 40 kt. The initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt. As mentioned in the previous discussion, Marie's forecast track remains fairly straightforward. The cyclone is expected to move generally westward to west-northwestward for the next few days as it skirts the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge to the north. Thereafter, a slower motion toward the northwest is forecast as Marie moves into a weakness in the ridge. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but a little to the left of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus track model guidance envelope. Although the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity models have backed off significantly on predicting rapid intensification (RI) on this cycle, several environmental and cyclone structural parameters are still favorable for RI to occur. For about the next 72 hours, sea-surface temperatures (SST) are forecast to remain above 28C, alone with mid-level humidity values above 70 prevent and low wind shear values around 5 kt. Those environmental conditions coupled with Marie's small RMW should result in RI beginning in about 24 hours and continuing until the 60-h time period. As result, Marie is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane in about 24 hours and possibly become a major hurricane in 60-72 hours. Rapid weakening is expected on days 4 and 5 due to SSTs less than 26C, likely significant cold upwelling owing to Marie's expected large and strong wind field, and increasing southwesterly vertical shear of 20-25 kt. The NHC official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the Decay-SHIPS and LGEM statistical models and the corrected-consensus HCCA model. Marie's 12-ft sea radii remain larger than would be expected for a small tropical storm due to a large fetch of southerly swell originating from the Southern Hemisphere. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 13.8N 110.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 14.1N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 14.6N 115.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 15.0N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 15.5N 121.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 16.5N 123.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 19.8N 129.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 21.4N 132.1W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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