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Tropical Depression Twenty-two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-09-18 04:43:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 180243 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 9(24) 3(27) 1(28) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 17(24) 16(40) 3(43) 3(46) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 3(18) 3(21) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 4(24) 5(29) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 3(17) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 23(38) 6(44) 5(49) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 3(14) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 7(30) 5(35) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 9(32) 5(37) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 6(24) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) 5(22) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 31(44) 9(53) 5(58) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20) 4(24) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 5(21) MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) 5(25) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 12(14) 8(22) 6(28) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 26(41) 8(49) 5(54) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) 4(21) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-two (AT2/AL222020)
2020-09-18 04:42:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 the center of Twenty-two was located near 22.0, -94.2 with movement NE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-two Public Advisory Number 2
2020-09-18 04:42:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 180242 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 94.2W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Two was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 94.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow north-northeastward motion is expected through early Saturday, with a slow turn toward the north and then west anticipated over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. The system could be near or at hurricane strength by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas and the Gulf coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a combination of the depression and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Twenty-two Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-18 04:42:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 180242 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 94.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 94.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 94.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.9N 93.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.9N 93.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 24.8N 92.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.4N 93.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 25.6N 94.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 25.7N 94.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 26.1N 95.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 26.4N 96.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 94.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-18 01:44:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 172344 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and has issued the last advisory on Vicky, which has become a remnant low over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Two, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form before upper-level winds become less favorable by late this weekend. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Showers and thunderstorms have change little since this morning in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the Azores. This system is forecast to move eastward and then northeastward at about 10 mph, and its opportunity for subtropical development will soon be decreasing since it is expected to reach the coast of Portugal on Friday. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2 $$ Forecaster Pasch
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