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Tropical Depression Twenty-two Public Advisory Number 1
2020-09-18 00:59:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 172259 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 600 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 94.3W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CDT (2300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Two was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 94.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and it is expected to generally meander over the western Gulf of Mexico into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Twenty-two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-09-18 00:59:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 172259 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 AT 2300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 2(14) 1(15) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 13(26) 5(31) 2(33) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 24(40) 6(46) 3(49) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) 1(16) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 5(21) 3(24) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 6(25) 4(29) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 2(15) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 24(31) 10(41) 4(45) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 2(15) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 3(13) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 8(27) 4(31) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 9(27) 5(32) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 3(16) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 4(15) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) 12(39) 6(45) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 3(16) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 6(16) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 6(17) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 13(22) 8(30) 6(36) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-17 19:40:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 171740 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic and on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little today in association with an area low pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm could form within the next day or so. The low is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through tonight before moving slowly northward to northeastward on Friday and Saturday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form before upper-level winds become less favorable by late this weekend. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Showers and thunderstorms have change little since this morning in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the Azores. Some additional subtropical development is possible over the next day or so as it moves east-southeastward and then northeastward at about 10 mph. The system is expected to reach the coast of Portugal late Friday. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2 High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Latto
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-17 19:39:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 171739 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 17 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Vicky Graphics
2020-09-17 16:40:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2020 14:40:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2020 15:41:39 GMT
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