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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-19 01:07:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 182307 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Teddy, located over the central Atlantic, on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Beta, located over the western Gulf of Mexico, on Tropical Storm Wilfred, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, and on Subtropical Storm Alpha, located inland over northwestern Portugal. Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is located near the western Azores. The cyclone is forecast to move southward for the next couple of days and then stall over marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south of the Azores by the end of the weekend. The cyclone could redevelop tropical characteristics late this weekend or early next week while it moves little. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by early Saturday. Some slow development of the system will be possible thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Wilfred are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Wilfred are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Alpha are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Wilfred are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2 $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-19 01:04:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 182304 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Sep 18 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of disturbed weather extends several hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form from this disturbance in a couple of days, and some development of the low is possible during the early to middle part of next week while it moves generally westward away from the coast of Mexico at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Beta Graphics
2020-09-18 22:54:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 20:54:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 20:54:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-18 22:53:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 182053 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation of Tropical Depression 22 has become better defined, and most objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are now 35 kt. Based on this, along with 33 kt 1-mi average winds from NOAA buoy 42002, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Beta with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Although the system is now a tropical storm, satellite imagery shows that the convective pattern is becoming elongated due to the effects of southwesterly vertical wind shear. Visible imagery and scatterometer data showed that the center of Beta was a bit farther east than previously thought, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 025/8. This motion should continue for the next 12-24 h as the storm is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas and northeastern Mexico. After that time, the trough should weaken and lift out to the northeast, with a mid-level ridge building to the north of the cyclone above an already present low-level ridge. This ridge should act as a Beta blocker, causing the storm to turn westward toward the western Gulf coast. Between 72-120 h, the mid-level ridge weakens as another mid-latitude trough moves through the central United States, and this is expected to cause the storm to slowly recurve toward the northeast. One change in the track guidance since the previous forecast is that the GFS and ECMWF are a bit faster on the westward motion and show the center near the Texas coast in about 72 h. The latter part of the new track forecast also shifts westward, but it is still to the east of the GFS/ECMWF. There is also a chance that Beta could move more northward than forecast before the trough lifts out, which adds an additional touch of uncertainty to the track forecast. So, it is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at days 3 to 5. The global models suggest that the current shear may decrease a little after 24 h when the upper-level trough moves away from Beta. However, there is a chance of at least some dry air entrainment that would hamper strengthening. The intensity guidance for the most part continues to forecast Beta to reach a peak intensity below hurricane strength, although the latest SHIPS model forecasts a peak intensity near 65 kt. The new intensity forecast is again unchanged in making Beta a hurricane at 60 and 72 h, and it lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Beta is expected to strengthen and possibly become a hurricane, while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. 2. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. 3. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct wind and storm surge impacts from Beta, interests throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system and future updates to the forecast. Storm Surge and Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be issued tonight or Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 24.3N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 25.1N 92.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 25.9N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 26.1N 93.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 26.3N 94.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 26.5N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 26.8N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 27.5N 96.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 28.5N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-09-18 22:53:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 182053 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 2(14) 2(16) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 7( 7) 14(21) 10(31) 8(39) 3(42) 3(45) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 4(17) 7(24) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 12(23) 6(29) 5(34) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 5(18) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 2(13) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 7(23) 5(28) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 26(40) 14(54) 4(58) 3(61) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 4(21) 2(23) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 3(13) 5(18) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 21(37) 7(44) 2(46) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 2(15) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) 25(43) 6(49) 3(52) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) 3(18) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 22(28) 7(35) 4(39) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 2(12) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 21(26) 8(34) 4(38) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 30(43) 20(63) 5(68) 2(70) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 20(31) 3(34) 2(36) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) 1(14) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 10(25) 3(28) MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 10(31) 3(34) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 9(30) 4(34) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 17(35) 10(45) 2(47) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 1(16) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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