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Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Public Advisory Number 4
2020-09-18 16:48:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 181448 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 ...SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 93.9W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Two was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 93.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected through early Saturday. A slow westward motion is forecast to begin late Saturday or Saturday night, and this motion will likely continue into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system could be near or at hurricane strength by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a combination of the depression and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-18 16:47:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 181447 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 93.9W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 93.9W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 94.1W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.8N 93.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.9N 93.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 26.3N 93.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.5N 94.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 26.6N 95.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 26.9N 96.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 27.5N 96.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 28.5N 95.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 93.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-18 16:35:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 181435 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure over the eastern Atlantic has become better-defined this morning. In addition, scatterometer data also show a closed circulation, albeit with some rain contamination causing some noise near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, in accordance with scatterometer data from last night (this morning's data missed the eastern side of the storm). Thus Wilfred has formed, continuing the record-setting pace of the 2020 hurricane season since it is the earliest 21st named storm on record, about 3 weeks earlier than Vince of 2005. Further intensification is possible during the next day or two before a large upper-level trough is forecast to drop into the path of the storm and stay there for at least a few days. That should promote weakening due to a substantial increase in shear, and most of the global models show this tropical cyclone opening up into a trough by day 5. The official forecast follows this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the consensus and corrected-consensus aids. Wilfred is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt. The storm is forecast to continue this motion for the next several days, owing to steering from the low- to middle-level subtropical ridge. The guidance is in fair agreement, and the official forecast is near or west of the consensus at all times, leaning in the direction of the HCCA corrected-consensus. I should mention that if Wilfred intensifies more than expected, it would probably move a bit right of the forecast track for a while due to the expected southwesterly flow at higher levels, before eventually turning back west-northwestward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 11.9N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 12.6N 34.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 13.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 14.5N 40.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 15.6N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 16.7N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 17.3N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 18.0N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Graphics
2020-09-18 16:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 14:33:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 15:41:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-09-18 16:33:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 181433 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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