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Tropical Storm Rene Graphics
2020-09-12 04:42:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 02:42:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 02:42:51 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-12 04:42:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 120242 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE OCHLOCKNEE RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF * OCHLOCKNEE RIVER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEHWERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 79.8W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 79.8W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.0N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.8N 82.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 27.9N 84.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 28.8N 85.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.3N 86.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 29.7N 87.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 30.2N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 31.3N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 79.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-09-12 04:41:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 120241 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 Deep convection has persisted near the center of Rene since this afternoon and a couple of earlier microwave overpasses suggest that there has been an increase in banding over the southwestern portion of the circulation. Despite what appears to be an increase in organization, recent ASCAT data indicated that this has not translated into an increase in intensity. The scatterometer data still supports an initial wind speed of 35 kt. Environmental conditions are forecast to generally be conducive for some strengthening over the next 12-24 hours, however with Rene continuing to struggle to intensify the NHC wind speed prediction has again been reduced during the that time. By 36-48 hours, Rene is expected to move beneath an area of strong upper-level west-northwesterly flow, and this increase in shear is expected to cause weakening. The ECMWF and GFS models significantly weaken Rene after 72 hours, with the ECMWF showing dissipation before the end of the forecast period. For now, the official forecast calls for Rene to weaken to a tropical depression by day 4, but it is possible that the system will degenerate into a trough of low pressure before day 5. Rene is moving west-northwestward or 295/12 kt. The cyclone should turn toward the northwest as it moves around the western portion of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. In a couple of days, a mid-level high is predicted to build to the northwest of Rene, which should cause the cyclone to slow down and turn westward, and then west-southwestward later in the forecast period. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement and the various consensus aids remained close to the previous official forecast. Therefore, the new NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 21.4N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 22.4N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 24.1N 45.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 25.7N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 26.8N 47.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 27.1N 47.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 26.8N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 25.9N 50.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 24.8N 54.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-12 04:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 11 the center of Rene was located near 21.4, -42.4 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rene Public Advisory Number 20
2020-09-12 04:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 120241 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 ...RENE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 42.4W ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 42.4 West. Rene is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northwest followed by a slower north-northwest motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, but a weakening trend will likely begin by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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