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Tropical Depression Nineteen Public Advisory Number 1A
2020-09-12 01:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 112332 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 79.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Jupiter Inlet to north of Ocean Reef A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast should also monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for a portion of that area tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 79.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). On the forecast track, the depression is forecast to move inland over south Florida early on Saturday, move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Saturday, and then move northwestward over the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm before moving across south Florida overnight. Otherwise it is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and gradually intensify through Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 6 to 12 hours. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys. This rainfall could produce isolated flash flooding and prolong ongoing minor flooding on rivers in the Tampa Bay area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-12 01:24:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 112324 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene, both located over the central Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Nineteen, located near southern Florida. A surface trough over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Another area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is located just off of the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions could support development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds could become less conducive for development by Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-12 01:12:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 112312 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Sep 11 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure located a little more than 600 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system is possible during the next day or two before it interacts with, and is possibly absorbed by, a larger weather disturbance to its east-southeast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Another area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. This system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms well to the west of the center of the the low. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high..70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-11 22:59:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 148 WTNT44 KNHC 112059 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 GOES-16 1-minute satellite data show that the system near the Bahamas that we have been monitoring for the past couple of days has quickly organized into a tropical depression. Very deep convection has formed near the center, and the 1-min data now shows enough north and northwest flow to indicate that a well-defined center is present. The initial wind speed is 30 kt in agreement with recent ship data. It is uncertain whether the large burst of convection over the center will continue and cause the depression to become a tropical storm before reaching Florida. However, since it is only a 5 kt increase from the current intensity, it is possible that tropical storm conditions could still occur along the southeast Florida coast late tonight, and a tropical storm watch has been issued. Otherwise, after the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico, steady intensification is expected through the weekend due to expected light wind shear and very warm water. Some increase in shear could occur over the northern Gulf of Mexico but that is uncertain at this time. The first forecast will stay conservative and only show a peak intensity of 60 kt in 3 to 4 days, but do not be surprised if that is revised upward on later forecasts once other models better initialize the depression. An uncertain estimate of the initial motion is 285/7. Strong ridging over the southeastern United States is expected to steer the cyclone to the west-northwest then northwest as a mid-latitude trough erodes the western side of the ridge over the weekend. The forecast gets tricky after that because the bulk of the guidance suggests the trough isn't deep enough to recurve the system, and instead it gets left behind, moving slowly westward early next week due to weak ridging over the southern Plains. The NHC forecast is near the corrected-consensus guidance. The uncertainty in the track forecast is much larger than normal after 48 hours, as small changes in the forecast steering flow could result in this system moving over the northern Gulf Coast faster and to the northeast of what is shown here. As a result, the risk of seeing direct impacts from this system extends well outside the cone of uncertainty, even more so than usual in this case. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected to produce isolated flash flooding over portions of central and southern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding in the Tampa Bay area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible tonight along the southeast Florida coast where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 3. The system is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity by early next week as it moves across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall will be possible along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to southeastern Louisiana this weekend and early next week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast, as Storm Surge, Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be issued later tonight and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 25.4N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 25.7N 80.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 26.2N 81.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 27.3N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 28.4N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 29.1N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 29.5N 87.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 30.0N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 31.0N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
2020-09-11 22:57:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 20:57:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 20:57:36 GMT
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