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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-09-11 16:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 111443 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAULETTE. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 52.2W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 52.2W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 51.7W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.6N 53.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 60SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.1N 55.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.6N 57.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.9N 59.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.2N 62.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.6N 64.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 34.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 37.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 52.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-11 13:41:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 111141 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Sep 11 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located about 400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula remains minimal. Some development of this system, however, is still possible during the next day or two before it interacts with, and possibly becomes absorbed by, a larger weather disturbance to its east-southeast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-11 13:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 111140 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. A surface trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend from the northwestern and central Bahamas eastward a few hundred miles over the western Atlantic. This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing the Bahamas and Florida today and tonight and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently minimal, some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Another large area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is beginning to move off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds could become less conducive for development by Monday or Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-11 11:15:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 09:15:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 09:24:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-09-11 11:11:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 110911 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAULETTE. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 51.7W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 150SE 270SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 51.7W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 51.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.9N 53.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.3N 54.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.8N 56.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.2N 58.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.5N 61.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 30.7N 63.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 33.5N 64.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 36.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 51.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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