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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-08 13:13:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 081113 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Rene, located near the western Cabo Verde Islands. An area of low pressure is located about 300 miles west-southwest of Bermuda. Showers and thunderstorm activity associated with the low has increased since last night, but remains somewhat disorganized. Gradual additional development of this system is possible during the next two or three days and it could become a tropical depression while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward. Interests along the southeast coast of the U.S. should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa by Thursday. Gradual development is expected once the system moves over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-08 13:13:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 081112 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Sep 8 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An elongated area of low pressure located about 450 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some development of this system during the next several days while it moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Rene Graphics
2020-09-08 10:43:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2020 08:43:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2020 08:43:25 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-08 10:38:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080838 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 While Rene continues to have a well-defined circulation, satellite imagery indicates that the associated convection remains poorly organized. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 30-35 kt range. Based on these, along with a 28 kt observation from Sal/GVAC, the initial intensity remains a possible generous 35 kt. The initial motion is westward or 280/13 kt. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy, as a westward motion is expected today, followed by a west-northwestward motion through Thursday as Rene rounds the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. On days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to move more slowly northwestward to north-northwestward through a weakness in the aforementioned ridge. The track guidance has shifted a little eastward after 72 h, and the new track forecast is also nudged eastward during that time. Other than that, the new forecast track is similar to the previous track. It is unclear why the convection is currently so poorly organized, although land interaction with the Cabo Verde Islands is a possibility. Conditions generally appear favorable for strengthening during the next three days or so, and much of the intensity guidance forecasts Rene to become a hurricane in 2-3 days time even though the water temperatures gradually decrease along the forecast track. After 72 h, Rene is expected to reach both warmer water and strong westerly shear, with the latter expected to cause the storm to weaken. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast and follows the trend of the intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands. 2. Rene will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 16.4N 24.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 16.7N 26.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 17.1N 29.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 17.9N 32.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 18.8N 34.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 19.8N 37.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 21.0N 39.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 24.5N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 28.6N 42.9W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-09-08 10:38:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 080837 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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