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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-09-09 04:50:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090250 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 29.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 29.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 28.6W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.5N 31.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.4N 33.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.3N 35.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.5N 38.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.1N 39.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.2N 41.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 42.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 30.2N 40.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 29.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-09 01:12:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 082312 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Rene, located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. A small area of low pressure is located about 450 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with minimal shower and thunderstorm activity. Gradual development of the low is possible during the next two or three days, and it could become a tropical depression while it continues to move slowly west-northwestward toward the coasts of South and North Carolina. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa on Thursday. Gradual development is expected once the system moves over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-09 01:03:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 082303 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Sep 8 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An elongated area of low pressure located more than 400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing limited shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for some development of this system during the next several days while it moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Rene Graphics
2020-09-08 22:35:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2020 20:35:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2020 21:32:09 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-08 22:34:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 082034 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 Rene has not changed much throughout the day. The storm is producing deep convection that is loosely organized in bands around the center. The satellite intensity estimates are unchanged from earlier and range from 25 kt to 40 kt. Based on these data and the earlier ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is again held at 35 kt. The eastern-most bands of Rene are now pulling west of the Cabo Verde Islands, and the Tropical Storm Warning for those islands has been discontinued. Although Rene has struggled to maintain its intensity during the past 24 hours, the models insist that the cyclone will begin to take advantage of the generally conducive conditions of low wind shear, high moisture, and relatively warm waters. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast continues to show Rene strengthening to a hurricane in a couple of days. Beyond that time, however, Rene will likely be moving into an environment of strong westerly wind shear, which should cause the storm to weaken in the 3-5 day time period. This forecast is largely an update of the previous one and closely follows the IVCN model. The tropical storm continues to move westward at 14 kt. There has been no significant change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge should continue to steer Rene westward to west-northwestward for the next couple of days. After that time, the storm should slow down and gradually turn to the north and then to the northeast as it moves into a weakness in the ridge. There is a little less spread in the guidance this cycle, but there remain differences in the models concerning where and how sharply Rene recurves. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies close to the TVCA and TVCX consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 16.8N 27.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 17.2N 29.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 18.0N 32.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 18.9N 34.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 19.9N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 21.3N 38.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 23.2N 40.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 27.7N 42.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 30.5N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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