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Summary for Tropical Depression Nicholas (AT4/AL142021)
2021-09-15 04:34:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 the center of Nicholas was located near 30.0, -94.1 with movement ENE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-09-15 04:34:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 15 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 150234 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0300 UTC WED SEP 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 94.1W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 94.1W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 94.4W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.2N 93.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 30.2N 92.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.4N 92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.9N 92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 94.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Nicholas Public Advisory Number 12
2021-09-15 04:34:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 150234 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nicholas Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 ...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 94.1W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WNW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nicholas was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 94.1 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow motion toward the east is expected tonight through Wednesday night, followed by a northward drift on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Nicholas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low Wednesday night or early Thursday. The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches across portions of southern and central Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through early Friday, with isolated storm totals of 20 inches possible from southern Louisiana to the far western Florida Panhandle. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urban areas, are possible across these regions. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is expected across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and Mississippi. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will gradually subside into this evening. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for a few more hours along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts. These conditions should diminish later tonight and Wednesday morning. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible tonight through early morning from southeast Louisiana to southwest Alabama. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast this evening and gradually subside tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-15 01:39:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 142339 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Nicholas, located near Port Arthur, Texas. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands are becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves north-northwestward to northward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast of Africa toward the end of the week. Environment conditions are forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, while it moves generally west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nicholas (AT4/AL142021)
2021-09-15 01:38:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICHOLAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 7:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 the center of Nicholas was located near 29.9, -94.4 with movement ENE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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