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Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-09-18 10:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180835 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR ODETTE'S POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO NEWFOUNDLAND AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 69.3W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......170NE 150SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 69.3W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 70.0W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 39.2N 66.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 40.8N 62.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 42.4N 58.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 43.3N 54.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 43.5N 51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...300NE 270SE 210SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 43.0N 48.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...360NE 300SE 240SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 42.5N 46.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 43.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 69.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-18 07:41:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 180541 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 17 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-18 07:41:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 180541 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Odette, located several hundred miles off the Mid-Atlantic U.S. coast. Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in association with an area of low pressure located less than 1000 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tomorrow while the system moves toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph. This system is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday, and interests there should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Upper-level winds are likely to become less conducive for development when the system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. An area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has developed a more concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms, primarily west of the center. This system is currently nearly stationary, but is expected to begin moving towards the northwest at 5 to 10 mph over the far eastern Atlantic where some additional development is possible over the weekend. However, by early next week, further development appears unlikely as the system is forecast to move into less conducive upper-level winds and over cooler waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Storm Odette Graphics
2021-09-18 04:35:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Sep 2021 02:35:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Sep 2021 03:22:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-18 04:33:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180233 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Satellite images indicate that west-southwesterly shear is taking a toll on Odette. Deep convection has been separating from the low-level circulation, and the closest area of thunderstorms is now more than 100 miles east of the center. The circulation is rather broad, but there is a clear center a couple of hundred miles off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. A very recent ASCAT pass showed some stronger winds in the thunderstorms more than a couple of hundred miles east of the low-level center, but its not clear if those winds are reliable and representative of the storm's true intensity. Hopefully more scatterometer data with be available soon to better assess Odette's strength. Although it appears that Odette has been meandering lately, a 12-hour average yields a northeastward motion at about 9 kt. The storm is expected to move faster northeastward or east-northeastward off the northeast U.S. and Atlantic Canada coasts this weekend as it moves in the mid-latitude flow. After that time, the models show a significant slow down as the cyclone cuts off from the progressive flow to the south or southeast of Newfoundland. Although there is quite a bit of spread in the models from days 3-5, almost all of the guidance shows the storm stalling by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models. This forecast still lies to the north of the consensus aids, however. Odette is already beginning the process of transitioning to an extratropical cyclone, and it will likely complete the transition by Saturday night when it is expected to be north of the Gulf Stream Current and merging with an approaching trough. The cyclone is likely to reach its peak intensity as an extratropical storm in 48-60 hours when the baroclinic dynamics are most favorable. Gradual weakening seems likely beyond that time. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and in line with the majority of the guidance. As Odette becomes fully extratropical and gains latitude this weekend, the wind field is forecast to expand significantly. Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Sunday night as a post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products from Environment Canada for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 36.4N 71.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 37.8N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 39.4N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/1200Z 41.0N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/0000Z 42.3N 57.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/1200Z 43.4N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0000Z 43.8N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0000Z 44.3N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/0000Z 44.8N 46.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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