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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-30 13:48:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 301148 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave are gradually moving westward away from the Lesser Antilles. Although the disturbance remains disorganized at this time, some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands this morning before diminishing this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A westward-moving tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is producing limited shower activity, and any further development is expected to be slow to occur while it moves slowly westward over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form off the southeastern coast of the United States in a day or two. Subsequent development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward or east-northeastward, initially parallel to the southeastern coast of the U.S. and then away from land. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A new tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a couple of days. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-30 13:24:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
469 ABPZ20 KNHC 301123 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Aug 30 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Iselle, located a few hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a tropical wave. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur over the next several days due to marginal upper-level winds while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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eastern
Tropical Depression Iselle Graphics
2020-08-30 10:40:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2020 08:40:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2020 08:40:06 GMT
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Tropical Depression Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-08-30 10:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300836 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Iselle Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2020 Iselle has produced very little deep convection since around 00Z. Earlier partial ASCAT data indicated that the maximum winds have decreased to 30 kt, which is not surprising given Iselle's lack of organization. Iselle is moving into a drier and more stable environment and over progressively cooler SSTs. While some slight redevelopment of convection is possible during the next few hours, it is unlikely to be very well organized and Iselle is forecast become post-tropical later today. The remnants of Iselle will then continue to gradually spin down for another day or two until it dissipates entirely in a couple of days. The cyclone has moved generally north-northeastward to northward during the pas few hours and is slowing down. The guidance is in good agreement that a northward to north-northwestward motion is likely until Iselle dissipates. No changes of note were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 22.3N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 23.3N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 31/0600Z 24.2N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/1800Z 24.9N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0600Z 26.0N 115.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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depression
Tropical Depression Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-08-30 10:32:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 300831 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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