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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-08-30 04:30:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 300230 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 114.2W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 114.2W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 114.3W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.9N 114.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 23.9N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.5N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.0N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.5N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 114.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-30 01:21:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
306 ABNT20 KNHC 292321 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph through the Lesser Antilles and the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to move very slowly for the next several days, and some development is possible early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A low pressure area is expected to form off of the southeastern coast of the United States by early next week. Additional subsequent development is possible as the system moves east-northeastward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-30 01:04:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 292304 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Aug 29 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Iselle, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Iselle Graphics
2020-08-29 22:39:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2020 20:39:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2020 21:24:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-08-29 22:38:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 292038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Iselle has become less organized during the past several hours, as the area of convection southwest of the center is now smaller and farther from the center than previously. This is likely due to the combined effects of continued easterly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures under the storm. A recent ASCAT overpass shows that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 kt, but the tropical-storm-force winds are now occurring only over the southeastern quadrant. The initial motion is north-northeastward or 025/6 kt. Iselle should turn toward the north during the next several hours as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to the east. The northward motion should continue for another day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as Iselle becomes a weak and shallow system. The new forecast track again has minor adjustment from the previous track based mainly on the initial position and motion. The shear and cooler water along the forecast track should cause Iselle to steadily weaken, and the new forecast track has no changes from the previous forecast. The forecast, which calls for the cyclone to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h, and to weaken to a trough by 72 h, again lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 21.0N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 22.1N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 23.4N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 24.2N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1800Z 24.8N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/0600Z 25.4N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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