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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-09-13 06:29:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0430 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 130429 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0430 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS * ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO FREEPORT TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS * BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA...INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY * BAFFIN BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO SABINE PASS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 96.3W AT 13/0430Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 96.3W AT 13/0430Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 96.0W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 26.0N 96.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 28.0N 96.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.4N 96.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.2N 95.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.8N 94.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.3N 94.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 31.7N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 96.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2021-09-13 05:58:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 03:58:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2021-09-13 05:58:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 03:58:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-09-13 04:59:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 130259 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Nicholas is not yet a well-organized tropical cyclone, with little evidence of convective banding features on satellite imagery. Observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center is still not very well-defined, and appears to have reformed again, this time farther south. Data from the aircraft indicate that the central pressure has not changed much since earlier today, and the maximum winds remain near 35 kt. This is above the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Nicholas will be traversing very warm waters during the next day or so, and within a moist, unstable atmosphere. These factors would favor strengthening. However, moderate southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough over northern Mexico could be an inhibiting factor for strengthening. In spite of the shear, the GFS model forecasts the system to strengthen while it nears the Texas coast. The official intensity forecast is at the upper end of the current model guidance. Given the uncertainties in the future strength of Nicholas, a Hurricane Watch is in effect for a portion of the Texas coast. The current location of Nicholas is quite uncertain since the aircraft-reported center position is within a broad area of light winds and is well south of most of the deep convection. Although the fixes show little motion this evening, based on the model predictions, it appears likely that the center will shift or re-form significantly northward as early as Monday morning. This is at least partially accounted for in the latest NHC track forecast, but some northward adjustments are possible over night. The storm is expected to move toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge during the next 36 hours or so. The track guidance and the model consensus has shifted eastward somewhat since the earlier advisory package. This has necessitated an eastward shift in the official track, and a northeastward extension of the watches and warnings. Key Messages: 1. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is also expected. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm late Monday and early Tuesday, and could be near hurricane intensity if it moves to the right of the forecast track and remains over water longer. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning Monday afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to Freeport late Monday and Monday night. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning Monday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 22.5N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 24.7N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 27.0N 96.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 28.6N 96.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 15/0000Z 29.9N 95.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 15/1200Z 30.4N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/0000Z 31.0N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/0000Z 31.7N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nicholas (AT4/AL142021)
2021-09-13 04:59:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 the center of Nicholas was located near 22.5, -95.5 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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