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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-09-13 16:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 131435 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 1500 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FROM SAN LUIS PASS TO SABINE PASS...INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO SABINE PASS. THE STORM SURGE WATCH FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO SABINE PASS * GALVESTON BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO SABINE PASS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS * SABINE PASS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA * CORPUS CHRISTI BAY A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICHOLAS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 96.8W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 96.8W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 96.9W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.5N 96.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.1N 96.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.2N 95.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.0N 94.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.5N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 32.0N 91.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 96.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nicholas (AT4/AL142021)
2021-09-13 13:53:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICHOLAS MOVING ERRATICALLY JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST TODAY... As of 7:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 the center of Nicholas was located near 25.4, -96.9 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Graphics
2021-09-13 13:53:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 11:53:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 09:22:37 GMT
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-13 13:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
139 ABPZ20 KNHC 131136 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Sep 13 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms have increased overnight in association with an elongated area of low pressure located more than 100 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while it moves westward or west-northwestward just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown/Hagen
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-13 13:19:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 131119 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas, located over the western Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa near the coasts of Guinea and Sierra Leone. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a couple of hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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