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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-12 19:32:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 121732 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Storm Nicholas, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located just west of the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands has diminished since this morning. Environmental conditions have become unfavorable, and significant development of this system is no longer expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located over the far northeastern Atlantic a few hundred miles east-northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward towards warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next day or so. After that time, the system is forecast to move inland over Portugal ending any further development chance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the southeastern or central Bahamas in a few days resulting from a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week several hundred miles southeast of the Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-12 19:28:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 121727 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 12 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure located near the southeastern coast of Mexico just to the southwest of Puerto Angel is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Further development of this system is unlikely today now that the low is interacting with land. However, a tropical depression could still form if the system moves westward away from the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico through Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2021-09-12 18:14:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 12 Sep 2021 16:14:39 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2021-09-12 18:14:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 12 Sep 2021 16:14:39 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-09-12 17:03:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 121502 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southern Bay of Campeche have increased overnight and very recently become better organized with a loose band of convection around the northeastern portion of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating the system has found 44-kt flight-level winds and SFMR winds that support a 35-kt initial intensity. Based on the recent increase in organization and the 35-kt initial intensity, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Nicholas, the fourteenth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. The storm is located within an environment of moderate south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, over warm waters, and in a moist and unstable atmosphere. These conditions should allow gradual strengthening over the next 24 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows suit and calls for gradual strengthening until the system reaches the coast of Texas. The official wind speed forecast is near the higher end of the guidance in best agreement with the SHIPS statistical guidance, the HFIP corrected consensus, and the HWRF. In this case, the intensity forecast is highly dependent on eventual track of the system. A track to the east of the NHC forecast could result in a lower wind shear environment and slightly more time over water for the system to strengthen. Conversely a track to the west of the forecast track would result in the system interacting with land much sooner. Since the system is still in its formative stage the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 330/11 kt. A north-northwestward motion around the western portion of a mid-level ridge that is sliding east near the coast of the Carolinas, should continue to steer Nicholas in that direction for the next 24 to 48 hours. After that time, steering currents weaken and the cyclone is expected to move slowly north-northeastward between a couple of mid-level ridges located to the east and west of Nicholas. The track guidance generally agrees with this overall scenario but there is some cross-track spread with the UKMET along the left side of the guidance envelope taking the storm into northeastern Mexico, while the GFS, HWRF, and HMON are along the right side. The NHC track is near the various consensus models and both the EC and GFS ensemble means. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning on Monday. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm on Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the middle and upper Texas coasts late Monday night and Tuesday. 2. There is the possibility of life-threatening storm surge along the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts today through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 20.5N 94.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 21.9N 95.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 24.1N 96.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 26.4N 96.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 28.2N 96.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 29.4N 95.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 15/1200Z 30.3N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 16/1200Z 31.0N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 17/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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