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Summary for Tropical Storm Nicholas (AT4/AL142021)
2021-09-13 01:58:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICHOLAS MOVING LITTLE AT THIS TIME... ...EXPECTED TO HEAD FOR THE TEXAS COAST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 the center of Nicholas was located near 22.5, -95.5 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 2A
2021-09-13 01:58:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 122358 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 700 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 ...NICHOLAS MOVING LITTLE AT THIS TIME... ...EXPECTED TO HEAD FOR THE TEXAS COAST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 95.5W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas * Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas to Sargent Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Freeport Texas * Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas has been meandering or drifting northward near 2 mph (4 km/h) over the past couple of hours, but a north-northwestward motion near 12 mph (19 km/h) is expected to resume later tonight and early monday. A northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas on Monday, and move onshore along the coast of south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the northwest Gulf coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas tonight through the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding. Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected tonight into Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft San Luis Pass to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft High Island, TX to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake..1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the warning area through Monday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night or early Tuesday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Monday into Monday night across the middle and lower Texas coast. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will begin affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast tonight and continue into Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-13 01:30:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
789 ABPZ20 KNHC 122330 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Sep 12 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A small area of low pressure located near the southern coast of Mexico just to the west-southwest of Puerto Escondido is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. A tropical depression could still form during the next day or so if the system remains over water while it moves westward or west-northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico through Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-13 01:28:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 122328 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Showers and thunderstorms are very limited in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure over the far northeastern Atlantic, located a few hundred miles east of the Azores. Significant development of this system appears unlikely during the next day or so while it moves slowly eastward. By late Tuesday, the system is forecast to move inland over Portugal. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a couple of hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2021-09-12 23:36:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sun, 12 Sep 2021 21:36:16 GMT
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