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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 3
2021-09-13 04:59:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 303 WTNT34 KNHC 130259 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 95.5W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch has been extended eastward to Freeport Texas. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to High Island Texas. The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended eastward to Sabine Pass. The Storm Surge Watch has been extended eastward to Rutherford Beach Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas * Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas to Freeport Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas * Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas * San Luis Pass Texas to Rutherford Beach Louisiana, including Galveston Bay * Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of High Island Texas to Sabine Pass A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas has been meandering or drifting northward near 2 mph (4 km/h) over the past couple of hours, but a north-northwestward motion near 12 mph (19 km/h) is expected to resume by early Monday. A northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas on Monday, and move onshore along the coast of south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the northwest Gulf coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas tonight through the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding. Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected tonight into Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay... 3-5 ft San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the warning area through Monday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night or early Tuesday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Monday into Monday night across the middle and lower Texas coast. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will begin affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast tonight and continue into Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-09-13 04:59:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 317 FONT14 KNHC 130259 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0300 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 9(17) 1(18) X(18) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 2(16) X(16) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 2(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 9(10) 8(18) 3(21) 3(24) 1(25) X(25) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 10(25) 2(27) X(27) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 8(28) 2(30) X(30) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X 7( 7) 8(15) 12(27) 7(34) 1(35) X(35) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 21(26) 8(34) 1(35) X(35) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 27(37) 6(43) 1(44) X(44) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 23(33) 7(40) 1(41) X(41) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GALVESTON TX 34 X 16(16) 27(43) 13(56) 1(57) 1(58) X(58) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 24(49) 3(52) 1(53) X(53) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUSTIN TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 X 9( 9) 37(46) 12(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 41(44) 17(61) 1(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 22(42) 3(45) X(45) X(45) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MATAGORDA TX 34 1 34(35) 33(68) 4(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 2( 2) 16(18) 5(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 1 41(42) 28(70) 2(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 4( 4) 14(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 17(17) 15(32) 3(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) ROCKPORT TX 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 10(10) 9(19) 2(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) GFMX 270N 960W 34 13 70(83) 3(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 23(23) 5(28) X(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MCALLEN TX 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARLINGEN TX 34 1 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 2 13(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 250N 960W 34 93 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) GFMX 250N 960W 50 8 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-09-13 04:58:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 096 WTNT24 KNHC 130258 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0300 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO FREEPORT TEXAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO SABINE PASS. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS * ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO FREEPORT TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS * BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA...INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY * BAFFIN BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO SABINE PASS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 95.5W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 95.5W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 95.8W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.7N 96.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.0N 96.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.6N 96.1W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 29.9N 95.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.4N 94.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.0N 94.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 31.7N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 95.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nicholas (AT4/AL142021)
2021-09-13 02:09:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICHOLAS MOVING LITTLE AT THIS TIME... ...EXPECTED TO HEAD FOR THE TEXAS COAST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 the center of Nicholas was located near 22.5, -95.5 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 2A
2021-09-13 02:09:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 503 WTNT34 KNHC 130009 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 2A...corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 700 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Corrected Tropical Storm Watch area ...NICHOLAS MOVING LITTLE AT THIS TIME... ...EXPECTED TO HEAD FOR THE TEXAS COAST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 95.5W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas * Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas to Sargent Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Freeport Texas * Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Freeport to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas has been meandering or drifting northward near 2 mph (4 km/h) over the past couple of hours, but a north-northwestward motion near 12 mph (19 km/h) is expected to resume later tonight and early monday. A northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas on Monday, and move onshore along the coast of south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the northwest Gulf coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas tonight through the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding. Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected tonight into Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft San Luis Pass to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft High Island, TX to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake..1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the warning area through Monday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night or early Tuesday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Monday into Monday night across the middle and lower Texas coast. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will begin affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast tonight and continue into Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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