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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-13 07:48:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 130548 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 12 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Satellite wind data indicate that disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the coast of southern Mexico are associated with an elongated area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could still form during the couple of days while it moves westward or west-northwestward just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico through Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nicholas (AT4/AL142021)
2021-09-13 07:45:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT NICHOLAS IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... As of 1:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 the center of Nicholas was located near 25.1, -96.5 with movement NNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 4A
2021-09-13 07:45:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 130545 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT NICHOLAS IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 96.5W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas * Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas to Freeport Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas * Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas * San Luis Pass Texas to Rutherford Beach Louisiana, including Galveston Bay * Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of High Island Texas to Sabine Pass A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 96.5 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). The storm should turn northward later today and north-northeastward on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and south Texas this morning, and move onshore along the coast of south or central Texas Monday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the northwest Gulf coast later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure has fallen to 1001 mb (29.56 inches) based on reconnaissance data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding. Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected through today. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay... 3-5 ft San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or early Tuesday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into tonight across the middle and lower Texas coast. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Graphics
2021-09-13 07:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 05:45:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 04:31:31 GMT
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-13 07:43:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
129 ABNT20 KNHC 130543 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas, located over the western Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa later today. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a couple of hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Showers and thunderstorms remain very limited in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure over the far northeastern Atlantic, about midway between the Azores and Portugal. Tropical or subtropical development of this system is no longer expected while it moves eastward and then inland over Portugal by late Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Latto
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